Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 15W (UNNAMED) intensifying east of Saipan... [Update #002]

Saturday, September 12, 2009

TD 15W (UNNAMED) intensifying east of Saipan... [Update #002]

for Saturday, 12 September 2009 [6:28 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 12 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 15W (UNNAMED).

15W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 12 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression 15W (UNNAMED) now moving westward as it intensfies...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands particularly Saipan should closely monitor the progress of 15W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 15W is expected to move on a more Westward track and intensify into a Tropical Storm within in the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 15W continuing moving on a westerly track...reaching Typhoon strength on Monday afternoon Sep 14. It shall pass over or very close to Saipan on Monday evening and shall be west of Northern Marianas by Tuesday Sep 15. This tropical cyclone shall start to turn more WNW-ward as it approaches the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday afternoon Sep 17.

+ Effects: 15W's westernmost developing outer rainbands approaching the Northern Marianas. Occasional rains w/ passing thunderstorms can be expected across the island chain beginning tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 200 mm can be expected along 15W's rainbands.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 12 2009
Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 152.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 725 km (390 nm) ESE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 830 km (448 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,870 km (1,010 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3,030 km (1,635 nm) East of Southern Luzon
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Northern Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): 600 km (325 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Sep 12
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Sep 12
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 14.9N 151.4E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 15.2N 149.9E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 146.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 15.7N 143.4E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / W @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.6N 152.8E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 15W IS EX-
PECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ALONG A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING
THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS...(more)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 15W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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