Wednesday, September 09, 2009

TD 14W (MARING) now moving away from Western Luzon... [Update #003]

 


for Wednesday, 09 September 2009 [6:40 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 09 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the new TD 14W (MARING).


14W (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [MARING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 09 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 90W MARING) rapidly accelerating Northwestward away from Western Luzon...almost a Tropical Storm...now threatens Southern China, particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern and Southwestern China & Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MARING).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 14W is expected to reach Tropical Storm status within the next 24 hours and turn more to the WNW. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Western Guangdong and Northern part of Hainan Island on Saturday afternoon as a strong 85-kph storm. 14W shall make landfall over Western Guangdong on Saturday night, Sep 12 and weaken rapidly as it moves inland across SW China.

    + Effects: 14W's compact circulation has moved completely over the open waters of the South China Sea...shall start to affect the coastal areas of Southern China beginning tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along the depression's rain bands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, BATAAN, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, PARTS OF VISAYAS AND WESTERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed September 09 2009
    Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 350 km (188 nm) West of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 340 km (183 nm) WNW of Vigan City
    Distance 3: 540 km (290 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    Distance 4: 570 km (308 nm) SE of Macau
    Distance 5: 780 km (420 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    60 kph (33 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 80 kph (43 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0.0 m]
    Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 22 kph
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Sep 09
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Wed Sep 09
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now lowered: ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, LA UNION, ABRA, PANGASINAN, & ZAMBALES. 

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 18.6N 117.8E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 116.6E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 113.4E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 09 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 111.1E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 17.9N 118.5E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
    CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FORMING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE ALBEIT
    WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NEARBY SHIP OBSERVA-
    TIONS, AND FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING UNFLAGGED 25-30 KNOT
    WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. TD 14W IS INITIALLY BEING STEERED NORTHWEST-
    WARD BY AN EXTENSION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
    BY TAU 24, A DEEPER SECONDARY RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR SHANGHAI WILL
    ASSUME STEERING OF THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO WEAK TROPICAL
    STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (IN
    EXCESS OF 28C) THEN WEAKEN BACK TO A TD AFTER TAU 72 WHEN IT
    ENCOUNTERS THE LAND MASS OF HAINAN ISLAND AND ZHANJIANG PENINSULA.
    THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
    TRACK FORECAST WITH GFDN AND NOGAPS AS RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS,
    RESPECTIVELY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
    SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.....
    (
    more)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER: 17.9N 117.8E / NW @ 07 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 14W (MARING)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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