for Wednesday, 16 September 2009 [10:36 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY CHOI-WAN (15W).
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
8:00 PM PST (12:00 GMT) Wed 16 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) still attaining Category 5 strength as it tracks more to the WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean.
*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to begin turning to the NW within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving Northward to NNE-ward, passing about 200 km to the west of Iwo To on Friday aftermoon Sep 18 and about 175 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall continue to weaken as it accelerates further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas...with its outer bands beginning to spreadu across Iwo To and Chichi Jima tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PST Wed September 16 2009
Location of Eye: 19.2º N Lat 141.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 625 km (338 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 600 km (325 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 725 km (390 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) South of Chichi Jima
Distance 5: 2,085 km (1,125 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 10 PM PST Wed Sep 16
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12Z Wed Sep 16
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Wed Sep 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 140.4E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NW @ 15 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY CHOI-WAN (15W).
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
8:00 PM PST (12:00 GMT) Wed 16 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to begin turning to the NW within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving Northward to NNE-ward, passing about 200 km to the west of Iwo To on Friday aftermoon Sep 18 and about 175 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall continue to weaken as it accelerates further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas...with its outer bands beginning to spreadu across Iwo To and Chichi Jima tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PST Wed September 16 2009
Location of Eye: 19.2º N Lat 141.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 625 km (338 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 600 km (325 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 725 km (390 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) South of Chichi Jima
Distance 5: 2,085 km (1,125 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 10 PM PST Wed Sep 16
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12Z Wed Sep 16
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Wed Sep 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 140.4E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NW @ 15 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 21.7N 139.46E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / N @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 25.8N 139.6E / 230-280 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NNE @ 26 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 30.9N 142.7E / 195-240 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 41 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 25.8N 139.6E / 230-280 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NNE @ 26 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 30.9N 142.7E / 195-240 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 41 KPH
REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.2N 141.9E.
^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT STY 15W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED EYE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED AT 7.0
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. STY 15W HAS
MAINTAINED A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD IN THE INITIAL 24
HOURS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, RANGING FROM 08 TO 10 KNOTS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTHEAST HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE GOOD EASTWARD
OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER
STY 15W PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW MECHANISMS IN CONCERT WITH HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STY 15W
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)
>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
____________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on STY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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