Thursday, September 17, 2009

Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) turning NW...[Update #014]

 


for Thursday, 17 September 2009 [6:25 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY CHOI-WAN (15W).


CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 17 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #020
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) turning northwestward south of Iwo To...no change in strength.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue moving NW to NNW within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving Northward to NNE-ward, passing about 135 km to the west of Iwo To tomorrow aftermoon Sep 18 and about 130 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall start to weaken as it accelerates further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical by early Tuesday morning Sep 22.

    + Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas...with its outer bands now spreading across Iwo To...and across Chichi Jima later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu September 17 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.1º N Lat 141.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 525 km (283 nm) South of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 635 km (345 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 710 km (383 nm) South of Chichi Jima
    Distance 4: 1,990 km (1,075 nm) East of Batanes, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    260 kph (140 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
    Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft (12.4 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 7 AM PST Thu Sep 17
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Wed Sep 16
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Sep 17
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 140.5E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NNW @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 22.7N 139.9E / 240-295 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / N @ 22 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 27.8N 141.1E / 215-260 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NE @ 37 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.6N 145.7E / 160-195 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 2) / NE @ 39 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.6N 141.4E.
    ^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
    SHOW THAT STY 15W HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
    OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD REMAIN AT T7.0. STY CHOI-WAN WILL
    CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CRESTING THE AXIS AND
    INCREASING IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AROUND 36 HRS. THROUGH THE FIRST
    24 TO 36 HOURS, STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON WITH
    THE HELP OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUFLOW AND ROBUST SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. STY 15W SHOULD START TO
    INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 72 HRS AND
    COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 120 HRS...
    (
    more)

    >> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful CloudName contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:




    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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