Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) moves closer to Taiwan...[Update #009]

for Thursday, 06 August 2009 [7:00 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

T2K SMS Alerts currently offline due to major server problem...tech engineers are currently fixing the problem. Meanwhile, the other services (Web & Email) remains running - issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TYPHOON MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 06 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) now passing due south of Ryukyu-Okinawa Islands...rapidly intensifying...threatens Yaeyama Islands and Northern Taiwan...Outer feeder bands spreading into Taiwan & nearby islands.

*Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT's forecast has changed more to the west - due to the strengthening high pressure steering ridge north of it...now threatens Northern Taiwan including Metro Taipei. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system reaching Category 4 status w/ possible strength of 215 kph before hitting Northern Taiwan early tomorrow eveing (approx 7PM). It shall first pass over Yaeyama Islands (located east of Northern Taiwan) early tomorrow (approx 2AM). The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass very close or over Taipei around midnight on Saturday Aug 8 before moving into Taiwan Strait and making its 2nd landfall over Southeastern China by early Sunday morning, Aug 9...shall rapidly dissipate on Monday Aug 9.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's large circulation continues to track westward with the development of a cloud-filled eye and eyewall as it traverses the warm waters of the Northernmost Philippine Sea. The storm's outer (feeder) bands has started to spread across Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands and Taiwan. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands and Eastern Taiwan today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON-METRO MANILA-BICOL REGION.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu August 06 2009
Location of Eye: 23.2º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km (197 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 700 km (378 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 955 km (515 nm) ESE of Fuzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]
Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Yaeyama-Northern Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 1,200 km (650 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Aug 06
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Wed Aug 05
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Thu Aug 06
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 23.6N 126.8E / 165-205 KPH (Cat 2) / W @ 20 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 24.0N 124.4E / 195-240 KPH (Cat 2) / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 25.2N 121.2E / 175-215 KPH (Cat 2) / WNW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.2N 119.3E / 120-150 KPH (Cat 1) / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 23.1N 129.4E.
^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM RJTD AND
PGTW. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A WESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW FOR A
TIME AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY. BY TAU 48, TY 09W WILL RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE IN CHINA AND MAKE
LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72....(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 23.2N 129.0E / WNW @ 19 kph / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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