Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Update #013


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013
Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #026 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) JUST BARELY A TYPHOON AS IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to be downgraded into a tropical
storm today and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
tomorrow morning. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is forecast to
continue entering DOLPHIN's circulation, dissipating the storm in 48 to
72 hours. It shall be just a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) approaching
Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) early Saturday morning (Dec 20). 

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to shrink over the NE portion
of the Philippine Sea and is not affecting any land areas.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) WED 17 DEC 2008 
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 131.8º
DISTANCE 1: 950 KM (512
NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,050 KM (567 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,060 KM (572 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,065 KM (575 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
CATEGORY ONE (1) 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO-CHICHI JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 
6 AM PST WED DEC 17
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16

TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 19.1N 132.3E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.5N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.4N 137.7E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 DECEMBER: 23.0N 140.6E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 131.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WHILE
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
NEAR 160300Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALED A DEVELOPING
EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER THIS HAS
SINCE BECOME UNDISTINGUISHABLE IN AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE WEAKENING TREND WAS ALSO
DISCERNABLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE STRONG BANDING
PREVIOUSLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HOWEVER, HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY FAINT TRACES OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
...
(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK 
   waters, and also a mascot of HK
Name contributed by: 
   
Hong Kong, China.

_____________________________________________________________________________
 
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.6N 131.3E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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