Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NOUL (TONYO) to hit SE Vietnam after lunch...[Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM NOUL [TONYO/26W/0820]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 17 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JTWC WARNING #005 / T2K EXTRAPOLATION ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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NOUL (TONYO) BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...RAPIDLY ACCELERATINGD WESTWARD...

NOW VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN VIETNAM, JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST

OF NHA TRANG CITY...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR...STRONG WINDS

AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

*Interests in Cambodia, SE & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NOUL.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TS NOUL may briefly reach 85 or 100 kph just prior

to hitting land. It will make landfall over Southeastern Vietnam after

noontime today...and cross SE and Southern Vietnam throughout this

afternoon until early evening, passing more or less 50 km North of Ho

Chi Minh City. The core is expected to weaken rapidly as land interaction

begins and shall be off Cambodia late this evening until tomorrow morning.

It shall exit over the Gulf of Thailand tomorrow afternoon and cross the

Isthmus of Kra tomorrow evening. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows

NOUL traversing the North Indian Ocean thru Andaman Sea and regaining

Tropical Storm status on Thursday Nov 20...and approaching the East Coast

of India on Saturday Nov 22. NOUL is likely to changed its identity from

a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropical cyclones

off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).

+ EFFECTS: NOUL's main circulation has began to enter Southeastern Viet-

nam...its rainbands now affecting most of Southeastern Vietnam...the whole

of Southern Vietnam will be under its circulation later this afternoon til

tonight. These bands is expected to moderate to heavy rains with passing

strong squalls...and wind gusts not in excess of 100 kph. 1-day rainfall

accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm is possible along its rain bands...with

isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of NOUL. Residents

in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for

possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be initiated if necessary.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) MON 17 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.6º N...LONGITUDE 109.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 95 KM (50 NM) SE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 2: 350 KM (190 NM) ENE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 3: 535 KM (290 NM) EAST OF PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHEASTERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 295 KM (160 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME MON NOV 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

08, 20, 44 & 68 HR. FORECAST:

8 PM (12 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 11.4N 108.7E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 11.0N 105.9E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 28 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 99.5E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 30 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 20 NOVEMBER: 11.2N 92.9E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.4N 111.4E.
^TS 26W (NOUL) HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED WHILE CONTINUING GENER-
ALLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PASSAGE ACROSS A HIGH HEAT CONTENT SEA
SURFACE...(more)

>> NOUL, meaning: Glows, red sky. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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