Wednesday, October 15, 2008

TS 22W (UNNAMED) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 15 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM 22W (UNNAMED) NEWLY-FORMED OFF THE GULF OF TONKIN...
MOVING SLOWLY CLOSER TO NORTHERN VIETNAM'S COAST.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TS 22W is expected to turn Westward while moving closer
to the coast of Northern Vietnam. The 12 to 24-hr forecast shows 22W making
landfall over Northern Vietnam this afternoon and shall dissipate in 36
hours over Laos.

+ EFFECTS: 22W's circulation has shrunked over the past 6 hours...its rain-
bands continues to bring moderate to heavy rainfall across Gulf of Tonkin
and Northern Vietnam...especially along the coast. 65 kph winds with higher
gusts can be expected in a very small area near the center of 22W. 1-day
rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm is possible along its rain
bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of 22W.
Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek eva-
cuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides
due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautio-
nary measures must be initiated if necessary.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM HONG KONG TIME (21:00 GMT) WED 15 OCT 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 106.8º
DISTANCE 1: 195 KM (105
NM) SE OF HANOI, VIETNAM 
DISTANCE 2: 205 KM (110 NM) WNW OF DONGFANG, HAINAN ISLAND 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL STORM 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/
N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 
2 AM MANILA TIME WED OCT 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 19.6N 105.9E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 19.8N 104.4E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 19.9N 103.0E / 30-45 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.4N 107.1E.
^CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN 60 NM FROM THE COAST
OF VIETNAM, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE OR LESS WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. A SMALL CDO CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LIMITING POSITION CONFIDENCE.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE HALTED FURTHER INTENSIFICA-
TION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 142229Z
QUIKSCAT PASS
...
(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS 22W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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