Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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SINLAKU (MARCE) BECOMES THE NINTH TYPHOON OF THE 2008 SEASON...MOVING

SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHERN PHILI-

PPINE SEA...HEAVY SQUALLS FROM ITS WESTERN OUTER BANDS ARE CURRENTLY

AFFECTING BATANES AND NORTHERN LUZON.

*Residents along Okinawa, Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of Kyushu in Japan should
closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU continues on its slow NNW to Northerly

track and is expected to turn to the NNE later tonight or early to-

morrow. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows SINLAKU becoming a

powerful cyclone reaching Category 4 status with winds of 230 kph on

Friday, Sep 12 as it maintains its slow NNE movement. The core of

SINLAKU shall pass directly or very close to Okinawa Island on Satur-

day morning (Sep 13) between 10-4 PM JST (Japan Standard Time). The

typhoon shall continue on its NNE track, reaching the southern coast

of Kyushu, Japan by Monday morning as a weakened Category 1 Typhoon,

as unfavorable upper level conditions (vertical wind shear) & its

interaction to land disrupts its circulation.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's circulation continues to swirl over the Northern

Philippine Sea with its western outer bands affecting northern luzon

including the Batanes Group of Islands. Cloudy skies w/ at times mo-

erate to heavy rains & thunderstorms accompanied with some winds not

exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected along these bands. Residents in

low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek evacuation for possible

life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated

heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro

Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-

lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with

possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds

not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-

tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Newly-formed and small Tropical Storm 16W

currently moving WNW over the far Western Pacific Ocean about 820 km

(442 nm) SE of Tokyo, Japan (30.7N 146.2E). Packing 1-min sustained
winds of 65 kph, the system was moving WNW @ 15 kph. Based on its
forecast, this system may briefly attain Typhoon status as it approa-
ches the SE coast of Honshu within 48 to 72 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.1º N...LONGITUDE 124.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 265 KM (145 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 525 KM (283 NM) SSE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 620 KM (335 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 795 KM (430 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-SOUTHERN KYUSHU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME WED SEPTEMBER 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - CAGAYAN & APAYAO.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 124.6E / 195-240 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 21.5N 124.9E / 215-260 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 23.5N 126.0E / 230-280 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMEBR: 25.8N 127.5E / 215-260 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.9N 124.5E.
^TYPHOON SINLAKU (15W) HAS INTENSIFIED 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS WERE IN
FAIRLY FOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WARNINGS BUT ARE
CURRENTLY IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36 WITH A LARGE SPREAD
...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 124.3E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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