Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JANGMI (OFEL)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (OFEL) NOW WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RES-

PONSIBILITY (PAR)...ACCELERATING WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE DIRECTION OF

THE BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

*Interests along the east coast of Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of
JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI is expected to continue moving on a straight

NW to WNW track for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon tonight. The

3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows JANGMI turning slightly Westward,

moving almost into the same area where HAGUPIT passed by. On early

morning Monday, Sep 29, the system shall be passing over the Batanes

Group as a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon with projected winds of 205 to 220

kph, turning more WNW passing along the SW Coast of Taiwan by early

Tuesday morning, Sep 30.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's circulation and spiral bands continues to improve

with its outer rain bands affecting the Western Micronesian islands of

Yap...and Ulithi. Moderate to heavy squalls (rain, winds & thunder-

storms) associated within its outer bands can be expected over the

affected area. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain

alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
is expected to be enhanced anew...by JANGMI (PRE-OFEL) and affect Metro
Manila, Luzon including Bicol & Mindoro, Visayas and Western Mindanao
over the weekend. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy
skies with passing moderate to heavy squalls - causing possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding
50 km/hr to prevail.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) THU 25 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.4º N...LONGITUDE 134.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,125 KM (607 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,100 KM (595 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,190 KM (642 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,245 KM (672 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,435 KM (775 NM) ESE OF BALER, AURORA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU SEP 25
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 14.2N 133.2E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 131.2E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 18.3N 127.6E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 19.6N 125.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 13.1N 135.2E.
^THE 120 HOUR FORECAST POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED POLEWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF TS JANGMI IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT
IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS AND ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STEERING
FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 12.6N 134.7E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JANGMI (OFEL)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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