Saturday, September 20, 2008

TS HAGUPIT (NINA) nears Bicol... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (NINA) NOW WITH 100-KPH WINDS...TURNING SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE BICOL REGION.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon including the Bicol Region, Quezon  & Samar Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to track more to the NW for the
2 days, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon later tonight or early tomorrow
morning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows HAGUPIT returning back
to its WNW track on Monday afternoon, passing very close to Batanes Is-
land on Tuesday morning Sep 23 w/ projected wind speeds of almost 200
kph (Category 3). It shall then move out into the South China Sea on
Tuesday evening, Sep 23. The typhoon shall be approaching the southern
coast of Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area on Wed-
nesday afternoon Sep 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possi-
bilty that HAGUPIT may continue tracking more Westward to WNW & make
landfall over Central or Northern Luzon on Tuesday, Sep 23. This sce-
nario is likely if the westward extension of the strong steering ridge
north & NW of HAGUPIT remains strong.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation remains over the Philippine Sea.
Its outer bands continues to spread across the eastern coast of the
Bicol Region and Samar Provinces. Under these bands, the affected areas
will experience light to moderate rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 50
km/hr. Moderate to heavy Squalls associated with the outer bands can be
expected later tonight or tomorrow over the affected areas, as HAGUPIT
moves closer. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay
& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where
possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are
located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this
storm are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in
low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for
possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the antici-
pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures
must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The
surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by TS HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Minda
nao and Visayas including Palawan. This wind system is expected to bring
mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to some-
times heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEP 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 129.4º
DISTANCE 1: 570 KM (308
NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 630 KM (340 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 675 KM (365 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 830 KM (448 NM) ESE OF INFANTA, QUEZON, PH
DISTANCE 5: 895 KM (485 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/
LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
5 PM MANILA TIME SAT SEP 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#01 - CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, NAGA CITY, IRIGA CITY, 
      CATANDUANES, ALBAY, LEGAZPI CITY, SORSOGON, NORTHERN SAMAR, 
      WESTERN SAMAR, & EASTERN SAMAR.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 128.2E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 16.7N 127.0E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.9N 124.2E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 120.4E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 129.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY WHILE TURNING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER
TAKING AN EQUATORWARD DIP DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR PERIOD.
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC)
...
(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog
   
Name contributed by: Philippines.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 14.1N 129.5E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS HAGUPIT (NINA)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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