Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Typhoon NURI (KAREN) - Update #005


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON NURI [KAREN/13W/0812] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 19 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
NURI (KAREN) BECOMES THE SEVENTH TYPHOON OF THE 2008 SEASON...MOVING
FASTER, CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON...MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
CAGAYAN TOMORROW.

*This system may enhanced the SW Monsoon Rains across the Luzon & Visayas beginning
today.
  


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NURI's is expected to continue moving WNW for the
next 2 days - passing just to the north of Cagayan tomorrow morning,
Aug 20 at approximately 6-7 AM local time. The eye and its eyewall
shall move across the Calayan Group of Islands & pass just north of
Ilocos Norte tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast
shows NURI gradually turning NW to NNW across the South China Sea
Thursday morning (Aug 21) and shall make its final landfall along the
coast of Eastern Guangdong, near Shantou City (with 205 kph forecast
winds) on Friday afternoon, Aug 22. NURI shall dissipated over land
along China on Sunday, Aug 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is
possibilty that NURI may turn NW earlier than expected, hitting
Batanes Area and into Southern Taiwan, if the High Pressure
Steering Ridge to its North weakens quickly. 

+ EFFECTS: NURI's elongated circulation and spiral bands remains at sea.
Its westernmost outer rainbands is now approaching the eastern coast of
Luzon. Passing light to moderate rains and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr
can be expected along these outer bands. Residents in low-lying areas
must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the
anticipated heavy rains brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary
measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of NURI's
projected path particularly when the system moves over Extreme Northern
Luzon. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched
storm surge is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf
reaching 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY
The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is
now being enhanced slowly by TY NURI (KAREN) affecting Southern Luzon &
NW Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies
with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &
winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.1º N...LONGITUDE 127.6º
DISTANCE 1: 595 KM (322
NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 630 KM (340 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 640 KM (345 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
DISTANCE 4: 700 KM (378 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 970 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 611 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
# 02 - CAGAYAN AND ISABELA.
# 01 - AURORA, POLILLO IS., QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA 
       UNION, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS PROVINCES, KALINGA, ABRA, 
       APAYAO, BATANES, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.6N 125.6E / 160-195 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.3N 123.2E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 20.1N 120.0E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 AUGUST: 22.4N 118.0E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 AUGUST POSITION: 16.9N 128.3E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON AT 18/12Z BASED ON IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION, TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE ON THE 180647Z TMI 37H IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUA-
DRANT...POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED WEAK BUT HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
SYSTEM FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING (30 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD. IN GENERAL,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE MODEL TRACKERS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WEST
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE MORE MODEL AIDS
AVAILABLE TO INCLUDE SUPERIOR PERFORMERS LIKE THE ECMWF
MODEL
...
(more)

>> NURI {pronounced: nu~ree}, meaning: Blue crowned parroquet in the 
   Malay language
Name contributed by: Malaysia.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 16.3N 128.3E / WEST @ 22 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY NURI (KAREN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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