Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NURI (KAREN) approaching Cagayan... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON NURI [KAREN/13W/0812]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 19 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON NURI (KAREN) APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON WITH CATEGORY

TWO STRENGTH.

*This system may slightly enhance the SW Monsoon Rains across Southern Luzon &
NW Visayas today.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NURI is expected to continue moving WNW for the next

24 hours & shall cross the northern tip of Cagayan known as Escarpada Point

and pass over the small island of Palaui before sunrise tomorrow (4-5 AM

local time). The eye and its eyewall shall move across the northern coastal

areas of Cagayan, Babuyan Group of Islands and over the Calayan Group of

Islands, passing more or less 100 km. north of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

tomorrow afternoon until the evening. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast

shows NURI gradually turning NW to NNW across the South China Sea on

Thursday, Aug 21 and shall make its final landfall along the coast of

Eastern Guangdong, near or over Shantou City late afternoon Friday (Aug

22). NURI shall dissipated over China Mainland on Sunday, Aug 24.
*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibilty that NURI may still
turn NW earlier than expected, hitting Batanes Area and into Southern

Taiwan, if the High Pressure Steering Ridge to its North weakens

quickly.

+ EFFECTS: NURI's elongated circulation and spiral bands remains over

the Philippine Sea. Its western-outer rainbands is now spreading across

Northern & Central Luzon, with its inner bands expected to reach Cagayan

& Isabela tonight. Passing light to moderate rains and winds not excee-

ding 60 km/hr can be expected along these outer bands, with increasing

typhoon-force winds and heavy rains as the inner bands and eyewall

approaches. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of NURI's projected path particularly

when the system moves over Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate damage is

possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible

along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf reaching 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon

continues to be enhanced slightly by TY NURI (KAREN) affecting Southern

& SW Luzon including Metro Manila & Western Visayas. This wind system is

expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to

moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr tonight

until tomorrow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 19 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.8º N...LONGITUDE 124.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 330 KM (180 NM) EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 335 KM (182 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 385 KM (207 NM) SE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, PH

DISTANCE 4: 420 KM (227 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 445 KM (240 NM) ESE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BABUYAN-CALAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, APAYAO, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, BABUYAN
GROUP OF ISLANDS, & BATANES.

#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO,
QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA & NORTHERN AURORA.
#01 - BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, REST OF AURORA &
POLILLO ISLAND.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.3N 123.0E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 19.0N 121.1E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 21.1N 118.6E / 195-240 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 AUGUST: 23.1N 117.3E / 195-240 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 AUGUST POSITION: 17.6N 125.4E.
^TY NURI (13W) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HINTS OF A DEVELOPING
EYE ARE APPARENT IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SATELLITE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE EASTERLY FLOW COMPRESSING THE STREAMLINES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON AND BROADER-SCALE EASTERLY FLOW ARE
ACTING IN TANDEM TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CHINESE SEABOARD...(more)

>> NURI {pronounced: nu~ree}, meaning: Blue crowned parroquet in the
Malay language. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.6N 125.1E / WNW @ 22 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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