Tuesday, August 05, 2008

TS JULIAN (10W) heads for Southern China...[Update #003]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM JULIAN [10W] 
Issued: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) TUE 05 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
JULIAN (10W) BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE SLOWING DOWN ITS WESTWARD
TRACK..REMAINS A THREAT TO SOUTHERN CHINA...SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA AND
SUBIC BAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JULIAN is expected to continue heading westward
for the next 12 hours across the northern part of the South China Sea,
turning WNW early tomorrow morning. It is likely to become a minimal
typhoon tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 4-day medium range shows the sys-
tem making landfall along Western Guangdong, more or less 200 km. West
of Hong Kong on Thursday afternoon, Aug 7 w/ complete dissipation on
Aug 8 - while moving WNW across the Chinese Province of Guangxi.  

+ EFFECTS: JULIAN's large circulation continues to cover much of the
South China Sea, with its outer-spiral rain bands spreading across the
Southern Coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong in Southern China, Taiwan
and the Philippine provinces of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, and Batanes.
Widespread rains and winds not in excess of 60 km/hr can be expected
along the affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher
grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy
rains brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be
initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by TS JULIAN. This wind system is currently bringing cloudy
skies with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy rains
& winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more
intense across Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Land-
slides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep
mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas
of the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the
whole Philippines. It will continue to bring widespread scattered rains
and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 05 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 116.8º
DISTANCE 1: 425 KM (230
NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (220 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA 
DISTANCE 3: 435 KM (235 NM) SOUTH OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 4: 450 KM (243 NM) SE OF MACAU, CHINA  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME TUE AUGUST 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR & LA UNION.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.6N 116.0E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.0N 114.9E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 21.2N 112.6E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 22.5N 110.4E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 19.5N 117.1E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
INTENSIFYING ABOVE 35 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE LOW- AND UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM
WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TS 10W BRIEFLY ACCELERATED
WESTWARD UNDER AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH EN-
HANCED EASTERLY FLOW, BUT THEN SLOWED AND BRIEFLY TRACKED MORE EQUATOR-
WARD IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEST-
ERN PORTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
..(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 19.6N 116.8E / W @ 11 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS JULIAN (10W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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