Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD LAWIN (14W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007 [FINAL]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) FIGHTING FOR LIFE WHILE DISSIPATING OVER

THE BATANES GROUP...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS NOT

CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. COMPLETE DISSIPATION EXPECTED LATER

TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

*This is the Final E-Mail Update on this weak depression.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving NW across the
Bashi Channel and dissipate just to the South of Taiwan by tomorrow
morning.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with its rainbands
sheared more or less 200 km southwest (SW) of its totally exposed Low
Level Circulation Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is may likely affect
the West Coast of Northern Luzon today - bringing light rains especially
along the mountain slopes & coastal areas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN but is retreating over the South China Sea. This wind

system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off"

light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr

across the Western Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila today. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flash floods is likely to occur along

steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone

areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough)
affecting Southern Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread sca-

ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 28 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.2º N...LONGITUDE 121.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 40 KM (22 NM) SW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 65 KM (35 NM) SOUTH OF ITBAYAT, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 105 KM (57 NM) NNE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 200 KM (108 NM) NORTH OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BASHI CHANNEL
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME THU AUGUST 28

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.8N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.5N 120.5E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 AUGUST POSITION: 20.0N 121.9E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27/06Z
WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM
WEST. TD 14W HAS ALSO SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN LUZON DUE TO
A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AND LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FAIR OVER-
ALL WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS (JGSM, GFS AND ECMWF)...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.4N 121.7E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm