Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 08W (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [HELEN]

Issued: 12:00 AM MANILA TIME (16:00 GMT) MON 14 JUly 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (HELEN) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE
SEA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...THREATENS EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON...CURRENTLY

ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS LUZON, METRO MANILA AND BICOL

REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 08W is expected to turn slowly Westward to NW-ward and

become a Tropical Storm within the next 24 to 48 hours. It shall pass close

to Batanes Group of Islands on Wednesday evening. The 3 to 5-day long-range

forecast shows the system accelerating NNW to Northward, making landfall

along Northern Taiwan Thursday evening, Jul 17 w/ forecast wind speeds of

100 km/hr. 08W shall move across the East China Sea on Friday & Saturday

(Jul 18-19) passing along the shorelines of Eastern China.

+ EFFECTS: 08W's western outer rain bands spreading across Extreme Northern

Luzon particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Babuyan, Calayan & Batanes Group of

Islands. Rains and winds not exceeding 45 km/hr can be expected along these

bands. Moderate to rough seas to prevail along the coastal areas of the

affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently en-

hanced by TD 08W (HELEN) continues to affect Metro Manila, Western Luzon,

Mindoro, Southern Quezon including Bicol Region. Cloudy skies with po-

ssible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudflows (lahars)

and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big

sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and

beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 14 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.5º N...LONGITUDE 124.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 275 KM (148 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 335 KM (180 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 290 KM (157 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 670 KM (362 NM) SSE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME MON JULY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, BATANES GROUP ISLANDS & CALAYAN GROUP
OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.4N 124.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.7N 123.5E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 16 JULY: 21.0N 122.4E / 75-95 KPH / N @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 17 JUNE: 24.4N 121.8E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 14 JULY POSITION: 18.5N 124.4E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, REACHING WARNING STRENGTH AT 140600Z. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS
FAVORABLE AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (14 GMT) 14 JULY: 9.4N 131.8E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 08W (HELEN)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm