Bushman's Typhoon Blog: T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 24-July 07, 2008]

Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook

Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 07 JULY
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Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 24-30, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across Western Luzon &
Western Visayas. Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the
onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea surface
temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the
South China Sea, East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea) & Western Pacific
Ocean. Active convection & increasingly more prevalent low-level westerly flow
equatorward of this region are expected to gradually lead to more favorable
conditions for Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.

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Week Two (2) Forecast: JULY 01-07, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across Western
Philippines. Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the
onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea
surface temperatures. Confidence: LOW.

[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for
the Philippine Sea & Western Pacific Ocean. Prevailing convection and
prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of this region are expected
to lead to continued favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone development.
Confidence: MODERATE.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook week.

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday.

> The next outlook will be issued on Tuesday, July 01, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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