Friday, May 16, 2008

TD COSME (95W) moving closer to Western Luzon... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [05W] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 16 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME (05W) SLOWLY GAINING STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INCREASING ITS THREAT TO WESTERN LUZON
PARTICULARLY ZAMBALES AND LA UNION

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: COSME is expected to become a Tropical Storm later
this morning and continue moving NNE for the next 12 hours. It shall
then begin moving NE in the direction of Western & Northern Luzon to-
morrow morning. COSME shall pass over Lingayen Gulf before noon tomo-
rrow (Saturday), reaching its forecast peak intensity of 95 km/hr.
The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows the storm making landfall
over La Union province tomorrow afternoon and cross Northern Luzon
tomorrow evening. It shall then exit out into the Philippine Sea via
Northern Cagayan early Sunday morning (May 18) w/ its strength down
to 85 or 75 km/hr. By early Monday morning, May 19, COSME shall again
re-intensify while moving across the Northern Philippine Sea with
winds of 100 km/hr as it accelerates NE towards Japan. 

+ EFFECTS: COSME's circulation has become more compact with most of
its rain bands still over the South China Sea. However, these bands
shall reach the Western coastline of Luzon (from La Union down to
Northern Palawan) later today. These rain bands are expected to bring
moderate to sometimes heavy rains along with winds not exceeding 60
km/hr. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for
possible flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which is locally induced by COSME & DINDO continues to affect Western
& Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan, Mindoro & Western Visayas
including Boracay Island Resort. The monsoon-affected areas will have
cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds
not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-
ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile,
big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal
and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest
of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which
will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the
afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.5º N...LONGITUDE 117.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175
NM) SW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF SUBIC BAY, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (192 NM) WEST OF PUERTO GALERA, PH 
DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) WSW OF MANILA, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NNE @ 09 KPH (05 KTS) 
GENERAL DIRECTION: ZAMBALES-LA UNION AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI MAY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESN/A
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 -
 NORTHERN PALAWAN, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO & LUBANG ISLAND. 

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 14.4N 118.0E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.5N 118.9E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.2N 122.6E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 22.6N 127.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 55 KPH
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 AM (08 GMT) 16 MAY: 13.7N 117.5E / N @ 07 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD COSME (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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