Bushman's Typhoon Blog: HALONG (COSME) weakens, now over Kalinga... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 18 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HALONG (COSME) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...DUE TO THE EFFECTS

OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE LUZON

MAINLAND (TAKE NOTE, STORMS GETS THEIR POWER/ENERGY FROM WARM OCEAN

MOIST AIR)...NOW IN THE VICINITY OF KALINGA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG shall weaken further as it passes over

Cagayan this morning. It shall be over the Philippine Sea this after-

noon. The 1 to 2-day short range forecast shows the storm reintensi-

fying back to Typhoon strength while passing to the South of Okinawa,

Japan tomorrow afternoon (Monday, May 19). By Tuesday morning, HALONG

shall become Extratropical prior in making its second landfall over

Honshu, Japan on Tuesday afternoon, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's weakening inner and outer rain bands continues to

dump moderate to heavy rains with strong gale-force winds across much

of Northern Luzon. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must remain

fully implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3

feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering

waves can be expected near and to the north of HALONG's projected path

particularly when the system returns back to Sea or over Cagayan-Isabela

Coastline. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Visayas

including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. The

monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate

rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect

the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile,

the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),

which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in

the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.4º N...LONGITUDE 121.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 50 KM (27 NM) WSW OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 100 KM (55 NM) ESE OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) SE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 115 KM (62 NM) SSW OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 5: 135 KM (73 NM) NNE OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 325 KM (175 NM) NORTH OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 19 KPH (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: .. FEET (... METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SUN MAY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO, KALINGA, CAGAYAN, BABUYAN
      GROUP OF ISLANDS, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
      IFUGAO, QUIRINO, BENGUET, PANGASINAN, & LA UNION.
#01 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA & BATANES.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.8N 122.7E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 20.8N 124.8E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 39 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 27.8N 131.8E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 72 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 MAY: 40.4N 143.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNE @ 75 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY POSITION: 17.0N 120.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HALONG) HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH LAND
AS IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
LUZON OVER THE LINGAYEN GULF. THE SYSTEM STEADILY INTENSIFIED
TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS (150 KPH) PRIOR TO A BRIEF LANDFALL
OVER CAPE BOLINAO. IT HAS SINCED WEAKENED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
TO LAND OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALED THE BRIEF PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 MAY: 17.1N 121.0E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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