Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Typhoon PEIPAH (KABAYAN) - Update #006


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TYPHOON PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 06 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 011
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
PEIPAH (KABAYAN) RE-INTENSIFIED BACK INTO A TYPHOON
...BARELY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. ITS
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME SMALLER, BUT MORE COMPACT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to track Westward for the next
24 hours and intensify slightly. The 2 to 5-day forecast shows PEIPAH
maintaining its minimal Typhoon intensity while turning SW'ly across
the South China Sea. The system shall be approaching the Eastern Coast
of Southern Vietnam Friday, Nov 9 as a downgraded Tropical Storm and
shall make landfall just North of Nha Trang, Vietnam just after mid-
night on Saturday, Nov 10 and dissipate

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has become compact and shrunked in its
size. Extreme Eastern portion of its outer rainbands continues to spread
across coastal areas of Ilocos Provinces, La Union down to Pangasinan.
Scattered rains with moderate to strong winds of not more than 60 km/hr
will prevail along the Western portions of Northern and Central Luzon.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and
to the north of PEIPAH's projected path Minimal damage is possible on
this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible along
coastal areas of Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/1004 MB)
over the Philippine Sea, has tracked WNW slowly. The system was located
about 595 km. ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar (10.8N 130.8E). With winds
of 30 km/hr..it was moving WNW slowly. This disturbance will be closely
monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within a day
or two.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYNortheast (NE)
 Monsoon Northeast (NE) Mon-
soon enhanced by TY PEIPAH (KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies
with intermittent rains & strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across
Taiwan and the Coastal areas of Southern and Eastern China. Landslides,
mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/
volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected
areas, while big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect
the coastal and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile,
the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),
which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in
the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.0º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 195 KM (105
NM) WNW OF VIGAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 215 KM (115 NM) WSW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 275 KM (148 NM) NW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 455 KM (245 NM) NW OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 04 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 465 KM (250 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME TUE NOVEMBER 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE & ILOCOS SUR.
#01 - PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, 
      APAYAO, ABRA,
WESTERN CAGAYAN & THE BABUYAN GROUP OF 
      ISLANDS
.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.9N 117.9E / 130-160 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 17.6N 116.9E / 130-160 KPH / SW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 NOVEMBER: 16.1N 114.8E / 120-150 KPH / SW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER POSITION: 18.0N 118.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PEIPAH) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE ISLAND OF
LUZON
.
..(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau
   Name contributed by: Macau.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 18.0N 118.7E / WEST @ 13 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PEIPAH (KABAYAN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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