Sunday, November 25, 2007

Typhoon MITAG (MINA) may miss Luzon...[Update #008]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723] 
Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) SUN 25 NOVEMBER 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 021
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MAY
BARELY MISS LUZON
AS ITS TRACK TURNED MORE NORTHWESTERLY...NOW EYEING
NORTHERN CAGAYAN
. EYEWALL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CAGAYAN OR ISABELA
EARLY TOMORROW (APPROX 2 TO 3 AM LOCAL TIME).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to continue moving
more northwesterly, making landfall along the northern part of
Cagayan early tomorrow morning approx 2-3 AM local time. The 
typhoon shall start weakening upon returning back to sea and 
may stall anew along the Balintang Channel due to weak steering
flow. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows MITAG drifting towards the 
northeast and weakening further into a Tropical Storm then 
later into a Tropical Depression due to increasing wind shear
(upper
level winds) and lower sea surface over the area. This
system is likely to become Extratropical on the 6th day. Landfall
Impact Forecast
(LIF) of this system now shows MITAG barely
hitting Luzon and is now expected to come ashore across the Nor-
thern part of Cagayan in Northern Luzon, Philippines early tomo-
rrow morning. 

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's Inner rainbands now spreading across the eastern
provinces of Northern Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora). Strong
winds not in excess of 100 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be
expected within these areas tonight & tomorrow. Meanwhile, the outer
rainbands continues to spread across the whole of Northern & Central
Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Provinces. Cloudy Skies with
passing rainshowers and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected
along the typhoon's outer bands
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 
5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous ba-
ttering waves can be expected near and to the north of MITAG's pro-
jected path particularly over Northeastern Luzon and, on where the
center makes landfall in Cagayan area. Minimal damage is possible
on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched Storm Surge is also possible
along coastal areas of Bicol Region
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoon MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring
cloudy skies with inter-
mittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across
Taiwan and SE China
. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is
likely to
occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,
low-lying &
flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea
waves or
surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and
beach-
front areas of Taiwan and SE China.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 205 KM (110
NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 260 KM (140 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 370 KM (200 NM) NORTH OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 425 KM (230 NM) NNW OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 170 KM (92 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 6: 360 KM (195 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE EYE
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 36 FEET (10.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOVEMBER 25
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#03 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO
      NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA AND POLILLO ISLAND
.
#02 - CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, NORTHERN QUEZON, NUEVA
      ECIJA, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES, ABRA & BABUYAN
      GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 -
ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, REST OF QUEZON, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN,
      PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN & THE BATANES GROUP OF
      ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 18.2N 122.2E / 150-185 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 19.3N 120.8E / 140-165 KPH / NNW @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 20.4N 120.8E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER POSITION: 16.5N 123.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM HAS BEEN LOCATED IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TY 24W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, THOUGH CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS
.
..(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 15.5N 123.6E / NW @ 15 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Imagery, USA (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT METEO-7 MICROWAVE IMAGE: new!
As of 4:30 PM Manila Time (08:30Z) 25 November 2007

> Image source:  NRL TC Page, USA (http://199.9.2.143/tc_pages/tc_home.html)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TYPHOON MITAG (MINA)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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