Wednesday, November 21, 2007

TS MITAG (MINA) enters PAR...threatens Bicol Region [Update #001]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL STORM MITAG [MINA/24W/0723] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 21 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 21 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) NEWLY-FORMED OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC...
ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...
HIGHLY THREATENS
BICOL REGION, QUEZON AND SAMAR PROVINCES.

**Communities along the Eastern Provinces of Central Philippines from
Quezon, Bicol down to Samar must be aware on the approach of this
potential Typhoon and take advance precautionary measures.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to slowly intensify while
traversing the warm Phiippine Sea on a straight Westerly to WSW direc-
tion. The 2 to 3-day Forecast shows MITAG slowing down & shall become
a 120-kph Category 1 Typhoon upon approaching the eastern coast of
Catanduanes Island early Friday morning, Nov 23. It shall pass over
Catanduanes around 8 AM Friday and traverse the Gulf of Lagonoy approx
2 PM Friday, make landfall along Tiwi-Buhi Area around 6 PM Friday and
cross the boundary of Albay and Camarines Sur in the evening. MITAG
shall be over Ragay Gulf or just South of Pasacao, Camarines Sur by
early Saturday morning, Nov 24. Initial Impact Forecast (IIF) of this
system now shows a Catanduanes-Lagonoy Gulf-Tiwi-Bato-Polangui & Balatan
Passage beginning Friday morning (Nov 23) until Saturday early
morning (Nov 24). 

+ EFFECTS: MITAG is not yet affecting any land mass as of this time and
its circulation continues to consolidate and improve.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Tropical Storms HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring
cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30
km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including
Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to
occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &
flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or
surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-
front areas of Eastern Philippines.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.8º N...LONGITUDE 134.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,090 KM (588
NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,160 KM (625 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,190 KM (643 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,210 KM (653 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 1,240 KM (670 NM) ESE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED NOVEMBER 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER: 14.3N 132.5E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.5N 129.6E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 13.9N 125.0E / 110-140 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER POSITION: 13.6N 135.1E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W DEVELOPED FROM A CONSOLIDATING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH OF YAP.
EARLIER SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, ALONG WITH AN
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AT 20/06Z, SUPPORTED AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE INCIPIENT DISTURBANCE WAS FIRST IDENTIFIED
IN THE CENTRAL CAROLINE ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 72 HOURS
.
..(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER: 14.0N 134.1E / W @ 22 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MITAG (MINA)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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