Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Typhoon LEKIMA (HANNA) - Update #011


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: TYPHOON LEKIMA [HANNA/16W/0714] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 02 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
LEKIMA (HANNA) BECOMES THE 10TH TYPHOON
OF 2007...BEARING DOWN THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN HAINAN...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING
THE AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LEKIMA is expected to continue moving WNW for the
next 24 hours and is likely to pass very close to Southern Hainan after
midnight with peak winds of 140 km/hr. The 2-day forecast shows LEKIMA
downgraded to a Storm after making landfall over North-Central Vietnam
tomorrow evening, Oct 03. It shall continue dissipating on Thursday Oct
04 as it moves across Laos

+ EFFECTS: LEKIMA's core (eye and eyewall) is now approaching the
Southern Coastline of Hainan with its inner rain bands spreading
across the whole Island of Hainan. Meanwhile, its outer rainbands
continues to spread across Gulf of Tonkin, Vietnam, portions of
Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Cloudy skies with passing light to
moderate and sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along Lekima's
outer bands...becoming more intense and windy as the inner bands
moves in. Typhoon force winds with heavy rains can be expected over
its eyewall.Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the north of LEKIMA's projected path especially
over Hainan and Vietnam tonight and tomorrow. Flash floods and mud-
slides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous
regions of the affected areas.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Southwest (SW)
Monsoon enhanced by TS LEKIMA (HANNA) located over the South China Sea
- will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains & SW'ly
winds of 20 km/hr or higher across Indochina becoming more frequent
over Southern Malaysia, Western Thailand, Cambodia, & Southern Vietnam.
Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes,
river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while
big waves can be expected along the coastal and beachfront areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.5º N...LONGITUDE 110.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 115 KM (62
NM) SE OF SANYA, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 2: 190 KM (103 NM) SOUTH OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) SE OF DONGFANG, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 4: 310 KM (167 NM) ENE OF HUE, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 5: 610 KM (330 NM) SE OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 970 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN HAINAN-GULF OF TONKIN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,390 KM (750 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HONG KONG TIME TUE OCTOBER 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.9N 108.9E / 140-165 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.2N 107.0E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.6N 103.4E / 45-65 KPH / . @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.3N 110.7E.
^
TS LEKIMA HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANI-
MATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND A DEVELOPING CDO
WITH A BANDING FEATURE SOUTH. SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO (599810) AND SANHU DAO (599850) INDICATE THE SYSTEM
CENTER PASSED BETWEEN THE ISLANDS NEAR 01/21Z WITH MINIMUM SLP
REPORTED NEAR 982 MB AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF ONLY 15-20 KNOTS
(CPA WAS ABOUT 25 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF XISHA DAO)...(more)

>> LEKIMA {pronounced: le~kee~mah}, meaning: A kind of tree whose fruit
   has only one seed surrounded by yellow pulp which looks like a yolk
   Name contributed by: Vietnam.

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY LEKIMA (HANNA)...go visit
our website @:

>
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