Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Typhoon KROSA (INENG) now drifting Westward... [Update #003]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
KROSA (INENG) BECOMES THE 11TH TYPHOON
OF 2007...NOW DRIFTING WEST-
WARD ACROSS THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA...MAY THREATEN EXTREME NORTHERN
LUZON AND TAIWAN THIS WEEKEND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: INENG is expected to accelerate WNW within the next
24 hours, turning more to the NW later. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows
INENG becoming an extremely dangerous Category 4 Typhoon with winds
reaching 215 km/hr by early Saturday morning, Oct 06. INENG shall reach
Yaeyama Islands early Sunday morning with a sudden slow in its NW track.
The eye shall be about 220 km. East of Taipei, Taiwan early Monday mor-
ning, Oct 8 (approx 2 AM HK Time)

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's main circulation has shrunked a little and remains
over the Northern part of the Philippine Sea and will continue to affect
the shipping lanes. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along the eas-
tern coastal stretch of Luzon and Visayas. Coastal Storm Surge flooding
of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves can be expected near and to the north of KROSA's projec-
ted path. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest (SW)
Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring
mostly cloudy skies with intermittent rainfall & SW'ly winds of 10
km/hr or higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over
Mindoro, Lubang Island, Western Visayas & Northern Palawan. Landslides
and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves
or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-
front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest
of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ, which will bring scattered
rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.1º N...LONGITUDE 130.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 910 KM (490
NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 945 KM (510 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 955 KM (515 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 980 KM (530 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 1,055 KM (570 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED OCTOBER 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.5N 130.0E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.2N 128.9E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.2N 126.9E / 205-240 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.9N 130.8E.
^
TYPHOON (TY) KROSA HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A
TYPHOON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ERRATIC BUT IN GENERAL SUPPORTED
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER ALONG WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE LAST 06 HOURS THE SYSTEM WAS QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.0N 130.8E / NW @ 07 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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