Friday, October 05, 2007

Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - Update #008


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: SUPER TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 06 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 016
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
KROSA (INENG) BECOMES THE FOURTH SUPER TYPHOON
OF 2007...JOGGED TOWARDS
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ENDANGERS TAIWAN...RAINBANDS AFFECTING NORTHERN
LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is likely to have reached its peak strength
and will maintain being a Super Typhoon for the next 12 hours and shall
begin to weaken as it approaches the coast of Eastern Taiwan tomorrow.
Krosa's large EYE shall make landfall just north of Hualien City, Taiwan
early Sunday morning around 2 AM local time (18 GMT), traversing the
mountainous region of Northern Taiwan throughout Sunday morning, passing
very close or over Taipei around 5 AM local time. The system shall exit
Taiwan via Taiwan Strait before noon, Sunday. The 2 to 5-day forecast
shows KROSA drifting offshore along SE China, with its EYE moving along
the coastal areas of Fujian & Zhejiang, China Sunday afternoon until
Tuesday evening, Oct 09. On Wednesday Oct 10, KROSA shall start recurving
towards the NE in the direcion of Cheju Island and South Korea, as a
downgraded Category 1 Typhoon

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's outer rainbands continues to spread across Taiwan
and Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate and
sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along Lekima's outer bands...
becoming more intense and windy as the inner rainbands approaches. Its
inner rainbands remains across Batanes Group & Babuyan Islands...expec-
ted to reach Eastern Taiwan tonight or early tomorrow. Coastal Storm
Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of KROSA's projected path particularly over Taiwan. Extreme
damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm
surge is possible along the Northern, NW and Eastern coastal stretch
of the Philippines. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along
river banks, low-lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas.
Precautionary measures must be initiated especially along the path of
this monster typhoon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate Southwest (SW)
Monsoon enhanced
by Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy
skies with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or
higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over Batangas,
Calamian Group, Mindoro, Boracay Island Resort, Romblon, Lubang Island,
Bondoc Peninsula, Burias & Ticao Islands, Masbate & Western Bicol. Land-
slides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea
waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and
beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the
rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which
will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the
afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.2º N...LONGITUDE 124.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 300 KM (162
NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 450 KM (242 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 450 KM (242 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 490 KM (265 NM) ESE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN 
DISTANCE 5: 535 KM (290 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 926 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,205 KM (650 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME FRI OCTOBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CALAYAN AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - CAGAYAN, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.2N 123.7E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 23.4N 122.6E / 220-270 KPH / NNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.9N 121.1E / 185-230 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 21.0N 125.0E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 17W HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY,
ALTHOUGH THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 NM OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TY 17W HAS BEEN STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERI-
PHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE LINKED UP WITH THE STORM'S PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 08 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS
...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.3N 124.8E / NW @ 15 KPH / 185 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on STY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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