Sunday, September 16, 2007

Typhoon NARI (FALCON) - Update #004


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TYPHOON NARI [FALCON/12W/0711] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 16 SEPTEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 17 SEPTEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON NARI (FALCON) 
HAS JUST PASSED OVER CHEJU ISLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTH KOREA...LANDFALL
JUST HOURS AWAY
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NARI is expected to make landfall along the sou-
thern part of South Korea early tonight approx 6-8 PM Japan Time.
This system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm upon crossing
South Korea late tonight and start transitioning into an Extratropi-
cal Cyclone upon exiting the Eastern coast of South Korea tomorrow
morning. By tomorrow evening, NARI shall be an Extratropical Cyclone
while accelerating NE'ly across the cooler waters of the Sea of Japan

+ EFFECTS: NARI's core (eye and eywall) is now along the Southern Coast
of South Korea, bringing typhoon force winds with moderate to heavy
rains over the area. Outer and Inner Rain bands affecting other parts
of South Korea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be ex-
pected near and to the north of NARI's projected path especially over
Cheju Island & South Korea today. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent
along river banks, low-lying and mountainous regions of the affected
areas. Precautionary measures must be initiated as the powerful system
approaches.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 34.5º N...LONGITUDE 127.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 145 KM (78
NM) NE OF CHEJU ISLAND
DISTANCE 2: 150 KM (80 NM) WSW OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA
DISTANCE 3: 350 KM (188 NM) SOUTH OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 0NE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH KOREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JAPAN TIME SUN SEPTEMBER 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 36.5N 128.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 39.1N 131.8E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 44 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 41.6N 137.2E / 55-75 KPH / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 33.9N 127.2E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS ACCELERATED AS IT HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. A 152126Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS IS BEGINNING TO
INDICATE THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE, AND
SOME LOSS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
...(more)

>> NARI {pronounced: na~ri}, meaning: A lily. A kind of plant which 
   grows from a bulb, with large white or coloured flowers, commonly 
   found in Korea in summer
. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY NARI (FALCON)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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