Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 01 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 02 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #016
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 02 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #016
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) MIGHT BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT
AS ITS "EYE" BEGINS TO CLEARS UP...ACCELERATING FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A SERIOUS THREAT TO
KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA IN JAPAN.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to continue moving AS ITS "EYE" BEGINS TO CLEARS UP...ACCELERATING FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A SERIOUS THREAT TO
KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA IN JAPAN.
NW'ly and shall make landfall over Kyushu-Shikoku area
tomorrow afternoon around 4 PM Japan Standard Time. The
advance 36-hour to 4-day forecast shows USAGI crossing
westernmost Honshu early Friday morning & shall be over
the Sea of Japan Friday afternoon, Aug 3. The typhoon
shall start losing strength and begins its transition into
an Extratropical Cyclone while moving NE'ly across the Sea
of Japan early Saturday morning, Aug 4. It shall be along
the West coast of Hokkaido, Japan Saturday afternoon and
become Extratropical after crossing Hokkaido on Sunday
afternoon (Aug 5).
+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northern outer bands are now spreading
across the coastal areas of Southern Japan. Light to mode-
rate rains with increasing winds can be expected along the
area. Meanwhile, the inner bands of the typhoon are expec-
ted to reach Kyushu and Shikoku tomorrow morning, Aug 2.
Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected tomorrow
as the powerful typhoon prepares to make landfall. Typhoon
conditions are expected late tomorrow afternoon as USAGI
crosses Eastern Kyushu. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13
to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of USAGI's projected path particularly the along the
coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and Western Honshu. Flash floods
and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and
mountainous areas of the affected areas. Extra-precautions
must be on high alert status as the typhoon approaches.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to forecast
a formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August
3 to 9. During the latest run of the model forecast (8 AM
Aug 01), it showed the first system forming over the South
China Sea around Aug 3 (Fri), becoming a Typhoon before ma-
king landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam on Aug 6 or 7.
Meanwhile, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug
6 or 7 (Mon or Tue) in the area off the Philippine Sea,
just to the east of Central Luzon - then heading northwester-
ly in the direction of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical
Storm or a Typhoon. The second one still shows a close proximity
to Luzon which might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring
moderate to heavy rainfall over the area. If this happens,
it might bring a big relief to the dry areas of Luzon particu-
larly over Angat Dam and other reservoirs. This scenario
remains supported by the Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard
Assessment of NOAA. Watch out for continued updates on
this advanced forecast.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 01 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 26.9º N...LONGITUDE 135.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 685 KM (370 NM) SE OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 750 KM (405 NM) SSE OF KOCHI, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 875 KM (472 NM) SSE OF HIROSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,530 KM (825 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 31 FEET (9.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST WED AUGUST 01
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.8N 133.6E / 220-270 KPH / NNW @ 30 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 31.7N 132.0E / 215-260 KPH / N @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 AUGUST: 36.8N 133.0E / 130-160 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 01 AUGUST POSITION: 26.3N 135.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED TO 120 KTS,
AIDED BY THE DUAL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN.
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WAS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OUT. HOWEVER,
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AT 500 MB SHOWS A BREAK REMAINS BETWEEN THE STR
EAST OF JAPAN AND A SECOND RIDGE WEST OF OKINAWA...(more info)
>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit).
Name contributed by: Japan.
____________
____________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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