Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #05


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 01 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 01 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) NOW A CATEGORY FOUR SYSTEM WITH WINDS
OF 215 KM/HR...DANGEROUSLY MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN KYUSHU
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to continue heading
NW'ly for the next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan with forecast sustained winds that may reach Super
Typhoon strength of 240 km/hr (Cat 4) before landfall. The
advance 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
landfall over Southern Kyushu tomorrow evening, Aug 2 and
cross the Japanese island. It shall then be off the Northern
Coast of Northern Kyushu Friday morning Aug 3 - recurving
towards the NE, across the Sea of Japan on Saturday, Aug 4
towards NE Japan (Sapporo area) on Sunday Aug 5


+ EFFECTS: USAGI's eastern-edge outer bands continues to
affect Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains with
moderate to strong winds can be expected along the area.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves
can be expected near and to the north of USAGI's projected
path
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
continues to forecast
a formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August
3 to 9
. During the latest run of the model forecast (8 PM
Jul 31), it showed the first system forming over the South
China Sea around Aug 3 (Fri), becoming a Typhoon before ma-
king landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Meanwhile,
the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8
(Tue or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to
the East of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in
the direction of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm
or a Typhoon. The second one still shows a close proximity
to Luzon which might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring
moderate to heavy rainfall over the area. If this happens,
it might be a big relief to the dry areas of Luzon particu-
larly over Angat Dam and other reservoirs
. This scenario
remains supported by the Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard
Assessment of NOAA. Watch out for continued updates on
this advanced forecast
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 01 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.7º N...LONGITUDE 137.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 405 KM (220 NM) WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 955 KM (515 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,010 KM (545 NM) SE OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,645 KM (888 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 937 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG-LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST WED AUGUST 01
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 26.2N 135.9E / 220-270 KPH / NW @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.6N 133.8E / 240-295 KPH / NW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 AUGUST: 32.8N 131.0E / 205-250 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST POSITION: 24.2N 137.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 105 KTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 5.5/5.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 6.0/6.0 FROM
RJTD. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER JAPAN HAS
ALLOWED A BRIEF NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND FORMATION OF A POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS HAVE ALLOWED RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR WITH MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN DEVELOPMENT..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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