Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Typhoon PABUK (CHEDENG) - Update #05


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON PABUK [CHEDENG/07W/0706] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 07 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 08 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
PABUK (CHEDENG) BECOMES THE 4TH TYPHOON OF 2007...
FAST
APPROACHING SOUTHERN TAIWAN...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABUK is expected to make landfall over
Southern Taiwan tonight around 10 PM HK Time and cross the
area. The 2-day forecast shows PABUK downgraded to a Tropi-
cal Storm over the Western Coast of Taiwan, near Kaoshiung
City early tomorrow morning, crossing Taiwan Strait after-
wards. This typhoon shall make its last and final landfall
over Eastern China, near the city of Shantou tomorrow after-
noon, Aug 8. It shall start dissipating early morning Thurs-
day - as it traverses the mountainous terrain of China


+ EFFECTS: PABUK's circulation remains compact. Its Inner
Bands is now off the Coast of Eastern & Southern Taiwan
bringing strong winds with moderate to heavy rains. Outer
Rain Bands continues to spread across Babuyan and Batanes
Group of Islands & the whole of Taiwan. Passing moderate
rains and winds can be expected along the outer bands.
Typhoon conditions is likely early tonight until tomorrow
morning as PABUK makes landfall and crosses Southern Tai-
wan. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous ba-
ttering waves can be expected near and to the north of
PABUK's projected path particularly the along the Southern
and Eastern Coast of Taiwan. Flash floods and mudslides
are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous
areas of Taiwan. Precautionary measures must be initiated
today as the typhoon approaches.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon
continues to be enhanced by PABUK and the weak Tropical
Depression over the Philippine Sea, East of Luzon...Clou-
dy skies with occasional light to moderate rains accompa-
nied with possible thunderstorms with SW'ly winds of 15
km/hr or higher can be expected along Mindoro, Southern
Luzon (including Bicol Region & Southern Quezon), Nor-
thern Palawan, Western Visayas & Western Mindanao. This
monsoon system may reach Northern & Central Luzon tomo-
rrow or Thursday. Meanwhile, rain clouds with isolated
thunderstorms will continue to prevail across most of
Luzon including Metro Manila - bringing light to mode-
rate to sometimes heavy rains. Mudslides and flooding
is likely along river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Stay tuned for more
Monsoon updates on the next advisory
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 07 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 22.0º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 180 KM (97
NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) SSE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 350 KM (190 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 37 KM/HR (20 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME AUGUST 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 23.1N 119.9E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 23.6N 116.9E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 24.4N 111.5E / 35-55 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH


REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST POSITION: 22.4N 123.3E.
^..
.(more)

>> PABUK {pronounced: pa~book}, meaning: Big fresh water fish. 
  
Name contributed by: Lao PDR.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.6N 122.9E / WNW @ 24 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PABUK (CHEDENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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