Saturday, August 18, 2007

TY SEPAT (EGAY) now making landfall over Taiwan... [Update #011]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: TYPHOON SEPAT [EGAY/09W/0708] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 18 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 18 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #023
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SEPAT (EGAY) NOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
TAIWAN...STARTS TO MAKE LANDFALL...WEAKENS TO CATEGORY
THREE (3)

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: In the next few hours, SEPAT will cross
Taiwan and shall exit the western coast around 4 PM HK time
this afternoon. Upon crossing the mountainous terrain, the
typhoon shall weaken considerably to Category 1 strength.
The 24 to 48-hr forecast shows SEPAT moving across Taiwan
Strait and shall make its 2nd & final landfall over South-
eastern China tomorrow morning (Sunday Aug 19) around 8-9
AM - passing between the Chinese cities of Xiamen & Fuzhou.
SEPAT shall dissipate over the mountainous region of China
on Monday Aug 20

+ EFFECTS: SEPAT's core (eyewall & eye) is now over South-
eastern Taiwan bringing typhoon-force winds with moderate
to heavy rains, while its inner rainbands now covers the
whole of Taiwan - stormy conditions will continue to pre-
vail through the afternoon. Meanwhile, SEPAT's outer rain-
bands continues to spread across Babuyan, Batanes & Calayan
Group of Islands. Cloudy skies with passing occasionally
light & moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall and strong
winds of up to 60 km/hr can be expected along these bands.
Meanwhile, large waves can also be observed along the
coastline of Northern & Western Luzon. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 09 to 13 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north of SEPAT's projected path particu-
larly along the Coast of Taiwan. Flash floods and mudslides
are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous
regions of the affected areas. Precautionary measures must
be initiated as the powerful system moves closer.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon re-
mains strong as it continues to be enhanced (pulled) by
SEPAT. Cloudy skies with light to moderate & sometimes
heavy rainfall & SW'ly winds of 20 km/hr or higher can be
expected today along Luzon - becoming more frequent & in-
tense over the Western sections of Luzon including Metro
Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, Ilocos
Provinces, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Benguet, Tarlac,
Pampanga, Mindoro, Calamian Group, Romblon & Boracay Island
Resort. Mudslides and flooding is likely along river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 121.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 280 KM (150
NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 110 KM (60 NM) SOUTH OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 140 KM (75 NM) ENE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN 
DISTANCE 4: 220 KM (120 NM) SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 650 KM (350 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SAT AUGUST 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 - BABUYAN & CALAYAN ISLANDS, ILOCOS PROVINCES, 
      LA UNION, PANGASINAN, APAYAO & ABRA.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 23.7N 120.7E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 24.7N 119.6E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 26.6N 116.9E / 35-55 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 AUGUST POSITION: 22.7N 121.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 09W (SEPAT) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES INCLUDING AN
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE STORM HAS CONTINUED
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TY 09W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CHINA...(more)

>> SEPAT {pronounced: se~pa~t}, meaning: A fresh water fish 
   with small climbing perch, is often found in rivers, swampy
   areas with a lot of weeds and paddy fields. Name contributed 
   by:
Malaysia.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 23.0N 121.4E / NW @ 19 KPH / 165 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY SEPAT (EGAY)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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