Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #03


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) REACHES CATEGORY TWO STATUS...STILL ON A
PATH TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN...THREATENS SHIKOKU-KYUSHU AREA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will remain on a consistent NW'ly
track for the next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan with forecast wind speeds of 220 km/hr (Cat 4). The
advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
landfall over Southwestern Shikoku-Eastern Kyushu early
Friday morning, Aug 3. It shall then traverse Southwestern
Honshu Friday morning, Aug 3. USAGI shall be off the Sea
of Japan Friday evening Aug 3


+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northern-edge outer bands now affecting
Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains with moderate
to strong winds can be expected along the area. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
be expected near and to the north of USAGI's projected path
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
are forecasting a
formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August 4
to 9. During the past 24-hour run of the model forecast (8 AM
& 8 PM Jul 30), it showed the first system forming over the
South China Sea around Aug 4 (Sat), becoming a major Typhoon
before making landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Mean-
while, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8
(Tue or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to the
East of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in the di-
rection of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm or a Ty-
phoon
. The second one shows a close proximity to Luzon which
might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and give moderate to heavy
rainfall over the area. If this happens, it will be a big relief
to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over Angat Dam and other
reservoirs
. Watch out for more updates on this forecast
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 31 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 140.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 335 KM (180 NM) SSW OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 1,355 KM (732 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,925 KM (1,040 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TUE JULY 31
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.2N 139.5E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.7N 137.9E / 215-260 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.5N 133.8E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY POSITION: 21.4N 140.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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http://www.maybagyo.com

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