Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Typhoon MAN-YI (04W) - Update #06


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TYPHOON MAN-YI [04W/0704] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 10 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 11 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
MAN-YI {pronounced as "Mun-yi"} (04W) BECOMES THE THIRD
TYPHOON
OF THE 2007 SEASON...EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PHILI-
PPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to continue inten-
sifying in the coming days as it traverses the Northern
Philippine Sea & shall move in a generally NW'ly track
for the next 2 to 3 days. Majority of the computer fore-
cast models now shows a path towards Okinawa-Southern
Japan area this weekend (Jul 13 to 15). Based on its cu-
rrent speed, MAN-YI is forecast to enter the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (PAR) around 5 AM tomorrow morning.
The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast (Jul 13 to 15) shows
the storm becoming a Category 4 Typhoon (215 km/hr) as
it turns toward the North, passing very close to the East
of Okinawa, Japan Saturday afternoon, Jul 13


+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large
and continues to cover the Northern part of Micronesia,
Western Marianas and portions of the Philippine Sea -
with its outer cloud bands reaching as far as Saipan to
the East & Palau to the West. Overcast skies with mode-
rate to heavy rains & gale-force winds of 55-65 km/hr
will continue to prevail today over the abovementioned
areas
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: The advance 2 to 4-day
forecast continues to suggest a surge of moderate to
strong Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is likely to
affect the Philippines beginning July 12-14 (Thu-Sat)
due to the passage of MAN-YI over the Philippine Sea,
which is expected to enhance the Monsoon system.
Cloudy
skies with intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms
can be expected across the country w/ SW'ly winds of
30 km/hr or higher, becoming more intense along Wes-
tern Luzon & Western Visayas including Metro Manila.

Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates in the coming
hours
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 10 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.2º N...LONGITUDE 136.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 205 KM (110 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 430 KM (230 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP
DISTANCE 3: 1,365 KM (737 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,665 KM (900 NM) SE OF CAGAYAN, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME JULY 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY: 14.4N 135.5E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 16.7N 133.4E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 12.8N 137.4E.
^TY MAN-YI WAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STATUS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM BOTH THE JMA AND PGTW
AS WELL AS THE CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL AIDS CONSEN-
SUS THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH REFLECT A SHARP POLEWARD TURN
AFTER 72 HOURS AND A RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO. THE PRIMARY
AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK..
.(more info)

>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
   ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the 
   sea has become a reservoir. 
Name contributed by: Hong Kong.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (04W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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