Thursday, November 02, 2006

Typhoon CIMARON (PAENG) not moving... [Update #012]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 02 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 03 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #025
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON CIMARON (PAENG) HAS REGAINED ITS STRENGTH BACK
TO A CATEGORY THREE (205 KM/HR) SYSTEM LAST NIGHT, BUT
WEAKENED ANEW DOWN
TO CATEGORY TWO...BARELY NOT MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CHINA SEA.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CHINA AND VIETNAM SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS ERRATIC TYPHOON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to drift NE for
the next 24 to 48 hours and weaken into a Tropical Storm.
The 3 to 4-day (Nov 5-6) long-range forecast shows CIMARON
turning SW'ly and dissipate due to unfavorable atmospheric
environment surrounding the cyclone
. 

+ EFFECTS: The system's circulation remains over the South
China Sea and is not affecting any landmass
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.1º N...LONGITUDE 116.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 425 KM (230 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 620 KM (335 NM) EAST OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 3: 455 KM (245 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 949 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 02 KM/HR (01 KT)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT THU NOVEMBER 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOV: 19.3N 116.6E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 02 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 NOV: 19.5N 116.8E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 02 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 NOV: 19.9N 117.1E / 85-100 KPH / WEST @ 02 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER POSITION: 19.1N 116.4E.
^TY CIMARON REMAINS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRON-
MENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST RE-
PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORE-
CAST AND REFLECTS A SLOW, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK NORTHWARD
UNDER INCREASING, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY CIMA-
RON WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW..
.
(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: 
Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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