Monday, November 27, 2006

TS DURIAN - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (23:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) HAS STRENGHTENED OVERNIGHT WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning today as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
West to WNW, becoming a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. It
is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
early tomorrow morning, Nov 28 and will be named locally by
PAGASA as "REMING." The 3 to 5-day (Nov 30-Dec 02) Long-range
forecast shows the system growing into an extremely dangerous
Category 4 Typhoon (230 km/hr), passing over the Northern
Coasts of Catanduanes and Caramoan Peninsula in Bicol Region
by Thursday morning, Nov 30 (approx. from 8 AM to 2 PM local
time) - with a close distance of 100 km to the NE of Naga City.
This system is forecast to reach Super Typhoon strength (240
kph) prior to landfall in between Infanta, Quezon & Baler,
Aurora by early Friday morning (3 PM Dec 01) and cross Central
Luzon the whole of day of Dec 1. DURIAN shall be off the coast
of Pangasinan early Saturday morning, Dec 2.
 

+ EFFECTS: The storm's circulation now affecting Ulithi and
Yap Islands. Passing showers accompanied with gale-force winds
to prevail across these islands today. Improving weather condi-
tions shall be expected tomorrow as the storm moves away from
the area
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.7º N...LONGITUDE 139.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 610 KM (330 NM) WSW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 245 KM (133 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 1,585 KM (855 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 4: 1,845 KM (995 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST MON NOVEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOV: 11.1N 138.0E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.6N 135.5E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.6N 130.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.6N 140.5E.
^TS Durian continues to track west-northwestward along the
periphery of a low to mid-level (850-700 mb) ridge anchored
to the north. Durian will transition to a deeper steering
layer as it intensifies, and thus will come under the in-
fluence of a 500 mb ridge currently anchored to the north-
west of the system. The 500 mb anticyclone is forecast to
build as it drifts slowly eastward during the forecast pe-
riod, and will keep Durian on a west-northwestward track
through 72 hours. Despite favorable outflow, deep convection
associated with Durian has decreased over the past 12 hours,
and has only recently begun to re-develop over the low level
circulation center in the past several hours. Convection is
forecast to continue consolidating in an environment of low
to moderate vertical wind shear and very favorable diver-
gence aloft. TS Durian is forecast to intensify at a greater
than climatological rate through through 72 hours..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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