Monday, November 27, 2006

TS DURIAN - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 26 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN MARIANAS BUT NEARS YAP AND ULITHI ISLANDS...
REMAINS A MAJOR THREAT TO EASTERN PHILIPPINES PARTI-
CULARLY SAMAR, BICOL REGION AND QUEZON PROVINCES IN
3 TO 4 DAYS TIME.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning tomorrow, Monday as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue accelerating
West to WNW and intensify further into a Typhoon within the next
36 to 48 hours. It is likely to enter the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) early Tuesday morning, Nov 28 and will be
named locally by PAGASA as "REMING." The 3 to 5-day (Nov 29-Dec
01) Long-range forecast shows the system growing into an ex-
tremely dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon (240 km/hr), passing
over the Northern Coast of Catanduanes and Caramoan Peninsula
in Bicol Region by Thursday afternoon, Nov 30 (approx. 2 PM
local time/06 GMT). This system shall make landfall near Baler,
Aurora by noontime Friday (12 NN Dec 01) and be overland along
Nueva Ecija-Vizcaya Area hours later (2 PM local/06 GMT Dec 01)


+ EFFECTS: The storm's northern circulation continues affecting
the Southern Mariana Islands including Guam. Passing showers
accompanied with gale-force winds to prevail across the islands
today. Improving weather conditions shall be expected tomorrow
as the storm moves away from the area
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.9º N...LONGITUDE 142.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 480 KM (260 NM) SW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 450 KM (243 NM) ENE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 1,845 KM (995 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 4: 1,990 KM (1,075 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 240 KM (120 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST SUN NOVEMBER 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOV: 10.5N 140.3E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOV: 11.2N 137.8E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 12.3N 132.4E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.7N 142.8E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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