Wednesday, November 29, 2006

TS DURIAN (REMING) accelerating faster towards Luzon... [Update #006]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 29 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (REMING) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH...CONTINUES TO MOVE FASTER, CLOSER
TO THE COASTS OF BICOL, SAMAR AND QUEZON PROVINCES
.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol, Quezon and Aurora
Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this
potential typhoon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
WNW due to the weakening of the High Pressure Ridge north
of it & to become a Typhoon tonight. The 2 to 5-day (Nov
30-Dec 03) long-range forecast remains the same showing a
more northwesterly turn, sparing the Bicol Region - pa-
ssing at distance of more or less 200 km to the NE of Ca-
tanduanes or 300 km to the NE of Naga City around Thursday
afternoon, Nov 30. This system is forecast to slow down
while reaching Category 4 strength with projected wind
speeds of 215 km/hr and shall make landfall along Eastern
Cagayan Saturday evening, Dec 02. DURIAN shall cross Ca-
gayan (passing very close to Aparri) by Sunday afternoon
Dec 03. Remember, that the 2 to 5-day forecast have a very
large margin of errors! KINDLY READ IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW


+ EFFECTS: The storm's eastern circulation (outer bands)
has left Western Micronesia. Meanwhile, its western circu-
lation shall reach the eastern sections of Bicol, Samar
and Surigao tomorrow morning or afternoon, November 29
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.2º N...LONGITUDE 132.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 860 KM (465 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, N. SAMAR
DISTANCE 2: 900 KM (485 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 960 KM (520 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 4: 1,020 KM (550 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST TUE NOVEMBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.9N 130.3E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOV: 13.8N 127.8E / 160-195 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 NOV: 15.7N 124.7E / 205-270 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.9N 133.2E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER (850-400 MB) RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS REA-
SONING IS SUPPORTED BY THE 8AM UPPER AIR ANALYSES THAT
DEPICT AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STORM (FROM
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE LUZON STRAIT).
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCE-
NARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE NCEP GFS
IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER DEPICTING A DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVING THE STORM EAST OF LUZON. CON-
VERSELY, THE JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN MAINTAIN A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGH-
TED TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF AIDS..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (REMING)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

TS DURIAN (REMING) to enter PAR today... [Update #005]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) IS NOW ABOUT TO ENTER THE PHI-
LIPPINE AREA OF REPSONSIBILITY (PAR), THUS A LOCAL NAME
WILL BE RELEASED: REMING...NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTH-
WEST AND INTENSIFYING.


...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential ty-
phoon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
WNW, becoming a Typhoon today. The 3 to 5-day (Dec 1-3)
Long-range forecast has changed and is now showing a more
northward turn passing a distance of 150 km to the north
of Catanduanes or 250 km to the NE of Naga City by early
morning of December 01. This system is forecast to reach
Category 4 strength with projected wind speeds of 215
km/hr and shall move across the coasts of Isabela and
hitting the eastern tip of Cagayan around Dec 03. Remem-
ber, that the 3 to 5-day forecasts have a very large mar-
gin of errors! KINDLY READ IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW


+ EFFECTS: The storm's eastern circulation continues to
affect the tiny Micronesian islands of Ulithi and Yap.
Passing showers accompanied with gale-force winds will
continue to prevail across the areas today. Improving
weather conditions shall be expected tonight as the
storm moves away from West Micronesia
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 136.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 295 KM (160 NM) NW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,155 KM (623 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,300 KM (702 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 1,405 KM (758 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST TUE NOVEMBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.8N 134.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.8N 131.5E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 NOV: 14.4N 126.9E / 215-260 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.0N 136.7E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER (850-400 MB) RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS REA-
SONING IS SUPPORTED BY THE 8AM UPPER AIR ANALYSES THAT
DEPICT AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STORM (FROM
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE LUZON STRAIT).
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCE-
NARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE NCEP GFS
IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER DEPICTING A DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVING THE STORM EAST OF LUZON. CON-
VERSELY, THE JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN MAINTAIN A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGH-
TED TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF AIDS..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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Monday, November 27, 2006

TS DURIAN approaching PAR... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #007
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS...PASSING NORTH OF ULITHI AND YAP IS-
LANDS...TO ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR) TOMORROW MORNING.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning today as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to turn towards the
WNW, becoming a Typhoon tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day
(Nov 30-Dec 02) Long-range forecast still shows the system
growing into an extremely dangerous Category 4 Typhoon (215
km/hr), passing over the Northern Coasts of Catanduanes
and Caramoan Peninsula (Camarines Sur) in Bicol Region by
Thursday morning til the afternoon, Nov 30 (approx. from 8
AM til 5 PM local time) - with a close distance of more or
less 100 km to the North of Naga City. This system is fore-
cast to move across Polillo Island before making landfall
just North of Infanta, Quezon around noontime of Friday,
Dec 01. DURIAN shall cross Central Luzon in the afternoon
up to the evening of Dec 01 - passing across the provinces
of Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Southern Pangasi-
nan & Northern Zambales. DURIAN shall be over the South
China Sea Saturday morning, Dec 02


+ EFFECTS: The storm's circulation continues to affect the
tiny Micronesian islands of Ulithi and Yap. Passing showers
accompanied with gale-force winds will prevail across these
areas today. Improving weather conditions shall be expected
tomorrow as the storm moves away from West Micronesia
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.8º N...LONGITUDE 137.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 150 KM (80 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,345 KM (725 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,490 KM (805 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 1,605 KM (865 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST MON NOVEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.2N 135.8E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.9N 133.2E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOV: 13.2N 127.6E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.7N 138.3E.
^An approaching mid-latitude low-pressure trough is forecast
to weaken the steering ridge over Luzon after 72 hours; TS
Durian will track northwestward toward this developing weak-
ness. TS Durian is forecast to reach maximum intensity prior
to making landfall in the Philippines, and will weaken slight-
ly due to terrain interaction and disruption of the low level
inflow, and drier air becomes ingested into the
circulation..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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__,_._,___

TS DURIAN - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (23:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) HAS STRENGHTENED OVERNIGHT WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning today as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
West to WNW, becoming a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. It
is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
early tomorrow morning, Nov 28 and will be named locally by
PAGASA as "REMING." The 3 to 5-day (Nov 30-Dec 02) Long-range
forecast shows the system growing into an extremely dangerous
Category 4 Typhoon (230 km/hr), passing over the Northern
Coasts of Catanduanes and Caramoan Peninsula in Bicol Region
by Thursday morning, Nov 30 (approx. from 8 AM to 2 PM local
time) - with a close distance of 100 km to the NE of Naga City.
This system is forecast to reach Super Typhoon strength (240
kph) prior to landfall in between Infanta, Quezon & Baler,
Aurora by early Friday morning (3 PM Dec 01) and cross Central
Luzon the whole of day of Dec 1. DURIAN shall be off the coast
of Pangasinan early Saturday morning, Dec 2.
 

+ EFFECTS: The storm's circulation now affecting Ulithi and
Yap Islands. Passing showers accompanied with gale-force winds
to prevail across these islands today. Improving weather condi-
tions shall be expected tomorrow as the storm moves away from
the area
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.7º N...LONGITUDE 139.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 610 KM (330 NM) WSW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 245 KM (133 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 1,585 KM (855 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 4: 1,845 KM (995 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST MON NOVEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOV: 11.1N 138.0E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.6N 135.5E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.6N 130.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.6N 140.5E.
^TS Durian continues to track west-northwestward along the
periphery of a low to mid-level (850-700 mb) ridge anchored
to the north. Durian will transition to a deeper steering
layer as it intensifies, and thus will come under the in-
fluence of a 500 mb ridge currently anchored to the north-
west of the system. The 500 mb anticyclone is forecast to
build as it drifts slowly eastward during the forecast pe-
riod, and will keep Durian on a west-northwestward track
through 72 hours. Despite favorable outflow, deep convection
associated with Durian has decreased over the past 12 hours,
and has only recently begun to re-develop over the low level
circulation center in the past several hours. Convection is
forecast to continue consolidating in an environment of low
to moderate vertical wind shear and very favorable diver-
gence aloft. TS Durian is forecast to intensify at a greater
than climatological rate through through 72 hours..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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our website @:

>
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