Saturday, October 14, 2006

Typhoon SOULIK (21W) still over Iwo Jima Island.. [Update #010]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) STILL BARELY NOT MOVING NEAR IWO
JIMA...IWO JIMA AND BONIN ISLANDS TO REMAIN UNDER
TYPHOON CONDITIONS FOR 24 HOURS


...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, 75-KM. RAGGED
EYE, WITH ITS INTENSE NORTHERN EYEWALL CURRENTLY OVER
IWO JIMA ISLAND...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF SOULIK.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to continue
drifting very slowly Northward for the next 12 to 24
hours reaching peak winds of 185-km/hr (Category 3) &
shall start slowly accelerating towards the NNE to
NE'ly within the next 36 to 48 hours. The large eye
shall pass over Iwo Jima before midnight of Oct 15
(Sunday). The 3 to 4-day long-range forecast (Oct 17-
18) shows SOULIK rapidly accelerating towards the NE
to ENE early next week and rapidly weakening as it
starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone.
This forecast outlook continues to suggest a 10 to
20% threat to Southeastern Japan as it shall remain
over the open waters of the NW Pacific until the time
it becomes Extratropical


+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's intense northern Eyewall remains
over Iwo Jima, with typhoon conditions prevailing
(strong ENE'ly to Easterly winds of more than 100
km/hr and heavy rains). Typhoon conditions shall
continue to prevail over Iwo Jima for the next 24
hours due to the very slow movement of Soulik. Mean-
while, Bonin Island is under the typhoon's inner
bands. Strong winds of not more than 100 km/hr with
moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves will continue to prevail for the next 2 days
along Iwo Jima and nearby islands
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: Westerly & South-
westerly windflow associated with the Monsoon Trough
(a.k.a. ITCZ) enhanced by SOULIK continues to bring
cloudy skies with rainshowers & thunderstorms across
the Marianas.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.2º N...LONGITUDE 141.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40 NM) SSW OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,330 KM (718 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,995 KM (1,077 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 04 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA-BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST SAT OCTOBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 24.4N 140.9E / 175-215 KPH / NORTH @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCT: 25.1N 141.0E / 185-230 KPH / NORTH @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCT: 29.0N 143.7E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 24.1N 141.0E.
^TY Soulik (21W) has slowed considerably over the past 12
hours after entering an environment of competing steering
high pressure ridges to its east and west. This slow movement
will continue through the next 24 hours, when an approaching
midlatitude low pressure trough currently evident in animated
water vapor satellite imagery over central China induces re-
curvature. As TY Soulik interacts with this approaching cold
core midlatitude system, extratropical transition is expected
to begin around 48 hours. The available dynamic aids have come
into much closer agreement regarding this scenario. This fore-
cast is based on a consensus of all available dynamic aids
..
.(more info)

>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei 
   Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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