Sunday, October 15, 2006

Typhoon SOULIK (21W) becoming Extratropical...[Update #013]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 15 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 16 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...NOW
LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. 

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to turn towards
the NE with a more accelerating speed tonight. This
system shall weaken into a Tropical Storm early tomo-
rrow and become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow night
or early Tuesday morning (Oct 17). 

+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's southern outer bands affecting Bonin
Island...improving weather conditions can be expected
tonight until tomorrow.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Two Tropical Disturbances (LPAs)
continues to organize to the west of Guam and over Microne-
sia (along Pohnpei & Kosrae Islands). The first disturbance
(92W/1006 mb) was located about 1,240 km East of Bicol Re-
gion (13.2N 135.8E)...while the second disturbance (93W/
1006 mb) was located about km 1,455 km SE of Guam (8.4N
157.1E)...both systems have wind speeds of 30 km/hr and
moving Westward slowly. These disturbances will be moni-
tored closely for possible development into Tropical Cy-
clones within the next 2 to 3 days.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 15 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 29.7º N...LONGITUDE 143.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 580 KM (315 NM) NNE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 745 KM (402 NM) SSE OF TOKYO, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SUN OCTOBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCT: 31.7N 145.8E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 59 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.9N 152.3E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 OCT: 37.7N 160.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 29.0N 142.4E.
^The system is showing signs of beginning extratropical
transition with stratocumulus on the western quadrants
and a notch of drier air intruding into the southern
quadrants. TY Soulik is tracking north-northeastward
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
(str) centered north of Wake Island. The system is pa-
ssing the axis of the str and accelerating northeastward
into the midlatitude flow. A midlatitude trough approaching
from the west will interact with TY Soulik around 24 hours
therefore the system will complete extratropical transition
by 36 hours...(more info)

>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei 
   Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

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Posted by MJ Klein at 22:58

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