Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Tropical Storm SOULIK (21W) - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM SOULIK [21W/0618] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 10 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 10 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
21W (UNNAMED) STRENGHTENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NOW NAMED
SOULIK
...TURNING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT
REMAINS A THREAT TO AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND
IWO JIMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS
SOULIK.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 21W is expected to turn WNW for the
next 2 to 3 days passing to the north of Agrihan late
Wednesday afternoon (Oct 11) and south of Iwo Jima Thurs-
day afternoon (Oct 12). The 3 to 5-day long range forecast
(Oct 13-16) shows SOULIK intensifying into a Category 2
Typhoon with projected winds of 175 km/hr and heading
more to the West that could bring a major threat to
Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands


+ EFFECTS: 21W's consolidating circulation continues to
improve with its outer rainbands expected to reach the
Northernmost Marianas beginning tonight. As of the moment,
this system is not yet affecting any Pacific Islands
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 10 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.7º N...LONGITUDE 153.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 895 KM (483 NM) ENE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 1,065 KM (575 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,505 KM (813 NM) SE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 4: 3,315 KM (1,790 NM) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 994 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TUE OCTOBER 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 OCT: 18.7N 151.7E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCT: 19.7N 148.8E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCT: 21.3N 143.3E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.3N 154.4E.
^TS SOULIK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND.
AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE EAST OF JAPAN
LIFTS OUT, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM, NUDGING THE
SYSTEM TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK..
.(more info)

>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei 
   Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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