Monday, October 09, 2006

TD 21W - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 09 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 10 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (UNNAMED) NEWLY FORMED OVER
THE OPEN SEAS OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN...HEADING
TOWARDS AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
.


...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND
IWO JIMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
TD 21W.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 21W is forecast turn WNW for the next
2 to 3 days passing to the north of Agrihan late Wednes-
day afternoon (Oct 11) and south of Iwo Jima Thursday
afternoon (Oct 12). This system will likely strengthen
into a Tropical Storm later tonight or early tomorrow
morning, Tuesday


+ EFFECTS: 21W's continues to consolidate with expanding
circulation which might affect the Northern Marianas begi-
nning tomorrow afternoon or evening. As of the moment,
this system is not yet affecting any Pacific Islands
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The cloud-free Tropical Distur-
bance (90W/LPA/1008 mb) has remained over the easternmost
Philippine Sea about 1,485 km. East of Luzon (16.0N 136.0E)
...with sustained winds of 30 km/hr...almost stationary.
This disturbance will be closely monitored for further
development.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 09 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.8º N...LONGITUDE 156.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,150 KM (620 NM) ENE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 1,275 KM (690 NM) ENE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,865 KM (1,007 NM) SE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 4: 3,455 KM (1,865 NM) ENE OF BICOL REGION, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 925 KM (500 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST MON OCTOBER 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCT: 16.7N 154.9E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 OCT: 17.8N 152.3E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCT: 19.6N 146.6E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.5N 156.9E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE
BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TD 21W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. THE AVAILABLE DY-
NAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BUILDING THIS STR WEST
TOWARDS HONSHU AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BEBINCA LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRACK OF TD 21W TO CONTINUE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 21W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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