Monday, October 02, 2006

TD 19W (NENENG) stationary off Philippine Sea... [Update #003]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [NENENG] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 02 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 03 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NENENG) HAS STALLED OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA BUT REMAINS A THREAT TO LUZON
.

...THIS DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY A 85-KM/HR TROPICAL
STORM BASED ON PAGASA'S 11 AM BULLETIN...ALL INTE-
RESTS IN NORTHERN LUZON, BATANES, TAIWAN & OKI-
NAWA-RYUKYU ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PRO-
GRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 19W is expected to turn more NW'ly
for the next 24 hrs and strengthen into a 65-km/hr Tro-
pical Storm...The 2 to 3-day medium range forecasts shows
the system moving Northward then recurving NNE'ly in the
direction of Southern Japan, reaching sustained winds of
100 km/hr by Oct 5


+ EFFECTS: 19W's large circulation continues to affect
Eastern Philippines...The Western Outer Bands of this
depression are currently spreading across the Bicol Region,
Samar, Leyte & Surigao Provinces. This will bring mostly
cloudy skies with light to moderate rainfall & winds of not
more than 50 km/hr today
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.5º N...LONGITUDE 130.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 720 KM (390 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 840 KM (453 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 1,055 KM (570 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA
DISTANCE 4: 960 KM (518 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 800 KM (430 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM HKT MON OCTOBER 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCT: 14.8N 130.5E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCT: 15.7N 130.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCT: 18.3N 129.9E / 85-100 KPH / NORTH @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.4N 131.0E.
^TD 19W HAS BEEN SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE CENTRAL CIRCU-
LATION OF A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE STORM REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.0N 129.7E / WNW @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 19W (NENENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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