Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: SUPER TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 30 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 30 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
____________
CIMARON (PAENG) BECOMES THE 6TH SUPER TYPHOON OF 2006
...TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA TONIGHT
...TO CROSS NORTHERN LUZON OVERNIGHT TIL TOMORROW.
...CIMARON MAY BECOME THE MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON EVER
...TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA TONIGHT
...TO CROSS NORTHERN LUZON OVERNIGHT TIL TOMORROW.
...CIMARON MAY BECOME THE MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON EVER
TO HIT NORTHERN LUZON SINCE SUPER TYPHOON ZEB (ILIANG)
OF OCTOBER 16, 1998.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to cross Nor-
thern Luzon passing over the provinces of Aurora,
Northern Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Northern Benguet,
and Ilocos Sur. Advance forecast shows that Cimaron
will exit the South China Sea tomorrow afternoon and
and Ilocos Sur. Advance forecast shows that Cimaron
will exit the South China Sea tomorrow afternoon and
move towards Vietnam. It shall strike Vietnam as a
weakened Tropical Storm sometime Nov 3, Friday.
+ EFFECTS: The system's inner bands now affecting
+ EFFECTS: The system's inner bands now affecting
Eastern Northern Luzon with the eye and eyewall
approaching Isabela-Northern Aurora. Typhoon conditions
can be expected across Northern Luzon overnight.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-
rous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of where the center of Cimaron makes landfall in
Northern Luzon, Philippines tonight.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-
rous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of where the center of Cimaron makes landfall in
Northern Luzon, Philippines tonight.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.4º N...LONGITUDE 123.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 2: 310 KM (168 NM) NNW OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 255 KM (138 NM) EAST OF BAGUIO CITY
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 315 KM/HR (170 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FIVE (5)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 898 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN AURORA-ISABELA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 33 FEET (10.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 11 PM PST MON OCTOBER 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#04 - ISABELA, SOUTHERN CAGAYAN, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.
#03 - REST OF AURORA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE,
PANGASINAN, BENGUET, LA UNION, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO,
KALINGA AND REST OF CAGAYAN.
#02 - CALAYAN ISLANDS, ILOCOS NORTE, NORTHERN ZAMBALES, TARLAC,
NUEVA ECIJA, NORTHERN BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO
PANGASINAN, BENGUET, LA UNION, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO,
KALINGA AND REST OF CAGAYAN.
#02 - CALAYAN ISLANDS, ILOCOS NORTE, NORTHERN ZAMBALES, TARLAC,
NUEVA ECIJA, NORTHERN BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO
ISLAND.
#01 - REST OF ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, REST OF BULACAN, RIZAL, REST
OF QUEZON AND CAMARINES NORTE.
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCT: 16.8N 121.6E / 230-280 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCT: 17.3N 119.8E / 175-215 KPH / WEST @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.3N 116.7E / 185-230 KPH / WEST @ 13 KPH
#01 - REST OF ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, REST OF BULACAN, RIZAL, REST
OF QUEZON AND CAMARINES NORTE.
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCT: 16.8N 121.6E / 230-280 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCT: 17.3N 119.8E / 175-215 KPH / WEST @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.3N 116.7E / 185-230 KPH / WEST @ 13 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.3N 123.5E.
^STY Cimaron is tracking westward along the southwestern
periphery of a section of the subtropical ridge located east
of Taiwan. Between 00 and 24 hours, STY Cimaron will pass
over the island of Luzon causing the system to slow and
weaken as it interacts with the terrain. As STY Cimaron
departs Luzon, another section of the subtropical ridge
located over northern Vietnam will become the primary
steering influence around 36 hours and begin steering
the system west-southwestward.
>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}
Wild Ox. Name contributed by: Philippines
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.4N 123.6E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 195 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on STY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on STY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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