Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Typhoon YAGI (16W) now at Category 3... [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TYPHOON YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 20 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 20 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ACCELERATES WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS
TO CATEGORY THREE WITH WINDS OF 185 KM/HR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to continue moving
Westward for the next 24 hours & intensify. By Thursday
morning (Sep 21), YAGI shall turn more to the WNW and
move in the direction of Iwo Jima Island. The 3 to 5-day
(Sep 23-25) Long Range Forecast shows the system moving
NW'ly, turning more Northerly and passing some 200 km to
the NE of Iwo Jima Island early morning Saturday (Sep 23)
& approaching the Southeastern Coast of Honshu Sunday
(Sep 24) as a weakened Category 2 Typhoon (est. 160 km/hr). 
All interests in Iwo Jima, Northernmost Marianas &
Southeastern Japan especially Honshu should closely moni-
tor the progress of this approaching typhoon. 

+ EFFECTS: At this moment, YAGI is not yet affecting any
Western Pacific islands.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.8º N...LONGITUDE 156.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 555 KM (300 NM) SE OF MARCUS ISLAND
DISTANCE 2:  1,225 KM (660 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,405 KM (760 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 4: 1,630 KM (880 NM) ESE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 38 FEET (11.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TIME WED SEPTEMBER 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEP: 19.6N 154.4E / 195-240 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEP: 19.9N 151.6E / 195-240 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEP: 22.1N 146.0E / 215-260 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.8N 156.8E.
^TY YAGI IS CONTINUING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. IT WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS AT WHICH POINT A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA, WILL MOVE OVER THE SEA
OF JAPAN ALLOWING TY YAGI TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 
72 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING
TY YAGI TO BEGIN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST SPEED
HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD, AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THROUGH 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS TY YAGI WILL MAR-
GINALLY SLOW AS IT BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWARD...(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning: Capricornus (goat). 
   Name contributed by: Japan
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
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Posted by MJ Klein at 11:17

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