Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
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Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
____________
XANGSANE (MILENYO) BECOMES THE 10TH TYPHOON OF THE 2006
SEASON...NOW POUNDING THE NORTHERN COAST OF SAMAR.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL, QUEZON & AURORA
PROVINCES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
XANGSANE.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL, QUEZON & AURORA
PROVINCES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
XANGSANE.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is expected to slightly
accelerate WNW for the next 24 hours and still intensify,
reaching a forecast peak winds of 140 km/hr this after-
noon. The Eye and its core is forecast to enter Lagonoy
Gulf around midnight & shall make landfall over Camarines
Sur around 2 AM local time tomorrow (Thu Sep 28) - passing
across the towns of Goa, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Calabanga, San
Miguel Bay and shall enter Camarines Norte through Mount
Labo or just to the SW of Daet before noontime tomorrow.
XANGSANE is forecast to exit Lamon Bay Thursday afternoon.
The 2 to 4-day (Sep 29 to Oct 1) Long-Range Forecast shows
the typhoon crossing Central Luzon early Friday morning
(Sep 29) & finally moving out into the South China Sea
via Zambales before noontime, Friday (Sep 29). XANGSANE
shall then regain Typhoon status over the South China Sea
as it heads for Hainan-Vietnam area by Sunday, Oct 1st.
All interests in the Bicol, Quezon and Aurora provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this typhoon.
+ EFFECTS: XANGSANE's inner bands continues to cover the
whole Island of Samar & now approaching Bicol Region &
Masbate...Outer Bands now reaching Southern Quezon & the
whole of Visayas including Boracay Beach Resort. Cloudy
with moderate to heavy rains and winds not in excess of
55 km/hr can be expected today along its outer bands...
while increasing wind speeds of up to 100 km/hr along
its inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be
expected tomorrow & Thursday along Bicol and Northern
Samar as XANGSANE's core (eye + eyewall) approaches.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves can be expected near and to the north or east of
where the center of Xangsane makes landfall in Bicol
Region early tomorrow.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 12.4º N...LONGITUDE 125.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 140 KM (75 NM) EAST OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR
DISTANCE 2: 220 KM (120 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 250 KM (135 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 4: 320 KM (173 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM HKT WED SEPTEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND,
CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, TICAO ISLAND & SAMAR
PROVINCES.
#01 - CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON PROVINCES, MARINDUQUE,
ROMBLON, LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLANDS,
CAMOTES ISLANDS, DINAGAT & SIARGAO ISLANDS.
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEP: 12.8N 125.0E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEP: 13.6N 123.6E / 130-160 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEP: 15.1N 120.4E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.2N 126.2E.
^RIDGING BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF TY XANGSANE HAS RESULTED
IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND A STRONGER STEE-
RING ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY INCREASE IN
THE FUTURE AS RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK PAST 48 HOURS AND A FASTER
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...(more info)
>> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant.
Name contributed by: Laos
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 12.4N 126.0E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 110 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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