Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) - Update #04


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #04
Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
SHANSHAN (LUIS)
BECOMES THE 8TH TYPHOON OF 2006..DRIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD THREATENING OKINAWA AREA.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
NW'ly for the next 12 hours before turning more to the West
tonight due to a building High Pressure north of the system.
The 3 to 5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 15-17) shows the
system turning Northward (Friday morning) in the direction
of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. The eye shall pass very close to
Okinawa Sunday Morning (Sep 17).


+ EFFECTS: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving NW'ly for
the next 12 hours before turning more to the West tonight due
to a building High Pressure north of the system. The 3 to
5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 15-17) shows the system
turning Northward (Friday morning) in the direction of
Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. The eye shall pass very close to
Okinawa Sunday Morning (Sep 17)
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon en-
hanced by a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the South China
Sea continues to bring cloudy skies with scattered rains &
thunderstorms across Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The broad Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea was estimated
about 540 km NW of Laoag City (19.7N 115.7E)..it was
moving WSW at 15 kph towards Hainan Island, China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch 
changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 132.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,100 KM (595 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2:  1,150 KM (620 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 905 KM (490 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,270 KM (685 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 972 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 20.0N 132.0E / 140-165 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 131.0E / 150-185 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 21.2N 128.6E / 165-205 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.3N 132.7E.
^TY SHANSHAN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE
AND HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. TY SHANSHAN IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE EXTENSION THROUGH 72
HOURS..
.(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning:
A fairly 
   common pet name for young girls. Name contributed 
   by:
Hong Kong, China

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 132.7E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | OFFLINE (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


__._,_.___
SPONSORED LINKS
Travel Deals

Yahoo! FareChase

Searches sites so

you don't have to

Y! Toolbar

Get it Free!

easy 1-click access

to your groups.

Yahoo! Groups

Start a group

in 3 easy steps.

Connect with others.

.

__,_._,___

No comments: