Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 14 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 14 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #016
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TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) WEAKENS INTO A CATEGORY ONE SYSTEM.
STILL MOVING WEST, INCREASING ITS THREAT TO BATANES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
Westward for the next 12 to 24 hours and turn slowly to the
North Friday Sep 15 as the High Pressure Ridge to its north
retreats. The 3 to 5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 17-20)
shows the system intensifying back to Category 2 (175 km/hr)
while heading North (Saturday morning) passing directly over
Yaeyama Islands, east of Taiwan. The core (eye & eyewall)
shall still pass some 200 km NW of Okinawa, Japan Sunday
morning (Sep 17) as a Category 1 Typhoon, before accele-
rating towards Southern Japan. All interests in South Korea
& the main Japanese Islands of Kyushu & Shikoku should close-
ly monitor the progress of Typhoon SHANSHAN.

+ EFFECTS: This typhoon is not yet affecting any islands at
the moment. However, its outer rainbands are expected to
reach Batanes and NE Luzon late today and Yaeyama-Eastern
Taiwan tomorrow or Saturday (Sep 15 or 16). Large ocean
swells generated by SHANSHAN are now affecting the islands.
Meanwhile, coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of
where the center makes a passby over Yaeyama-Okinawa Islands
Saturday & Sunday.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.4º N...LONGITUDE 126.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 490 KM (265 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 570 KM (308 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 690 KM (372 NM) SSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 730 KM (395 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-YAEYAMA ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME THU SEPTEMBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS &
      CAGAYAN.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 125.8E / 150-185 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 21.1N 124.9E / 160-195 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 23.8N 124.0E / 165-205 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.3N 127.0E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS DECREASED ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER A
BRIEF ACCELERATION AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTH OF WESTERN JAPAN. TY SHANSHAN WILL BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS, WITH A NORTHWARD
TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN
HAS BEEN DELAYED IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER THAN ANTICI-
PATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING
IN A LONGER WESTWARD TRANSLATION. THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVATURE DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECUR-
VATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 126.4E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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