Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) turns West... [Update #06]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #06

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 13 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 13 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
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TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS)
TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST, STILL
A THREAT TO TAIWAN AND OKINAWA-RYUKYU ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue drifting
West for the next 12 hours and turn WNW for the next 48 hours
as the High Pressure Ridge to its north retreats. The 3 to 5-
day Long Range Forecast (Sep 16-18) shows the system turning
Northward (Friday morning) in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyus
Area. The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass very close to Oki-
nawa, Japan early Sunday Morning (Sep 17) as a 185-km/hr Cate-
gory 3 Typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: This typhoon is not yet affecting any islands at
the moment. However, its outer rainbands are expected to
reach Okinawa-Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands Friday or Saturday
(Sep 15 or 16).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon re-
treats further and is now in the vicinity of the coast of
Vietnam.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea is now
Tropical Depression 15W (Unnamed)...For more details,
subscribe to out Asia-Pacific Email List.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.2º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 825 KM (445 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 885 KM (478 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 725 KM (390 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 1,005 KM (543 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME WED SEPTEMBER 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 128.8E / 175-215 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 127.8E / 185-230 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 22.0N 126.6E / 195-240 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.1N 130.2E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS INCREASED ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE AS IT CON-
TINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF WESTERN
JAPAN. TY SHANSHAN WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AFTER

24 HOURS AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.1N 130.2E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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