Thursday, September 14, 2006

Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) nears Batanes & Northern Cagayan... [Update #009]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009
Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 14 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) REGAINS CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH WITH
WINDS OF 160 KM/HR...NOW TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY
.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
WNW slowly for the next 12 hours, turning more Northerly
tomorrow until early morning Saturday (Sep 16) - passing
over the islands of Yaeyama as a Category 3 system (185
km/hr). The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass some 200 km NW
of Okinawa, Japan by Saturday evening (Sep 16). The 3 to
5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 17-19) shows the system re-
curving and gaining speed towards the NE (Sunday afternoon)
moving across the Korea Strait. All interests in South
Korea & the main Japanese Island of Kyushu should closely
monitor the progress of Typhoon SHANSHAN.


+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's outer rainbands are now approa-
ching the Batanes and NE Luzon area...expected to reach
the area tonight or early tomorrow, and over Eastern Tai-
wan & Yaeyama Islands tomorrow through Saturday (Sep 15
or 16). Passing moderate to heavy rains with increasing
gale force winds of up to 60 km/hr can be expected along
its outer bands. Large ocean swells generated by SHANSHAN
are now affecting the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon,
Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Yaeyama Islands & Eastern
Taiwan. Precautionary measures must be implemented if ne-
cessary, along the affected areas. Meanwhile, coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...
can be expected near and to the north of where the center
makes a passby over Eastern Taiwan-Yaeyama-Okinawa Islands
Saturday & Sunday
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon may
be slightly enhanced along the western sections of Visayas
and Luzon beginning tonight. Cloudy skies with widespread
rains & thunderstorms can be expected.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The new active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1006 mb) has been disorganized over the past 6 hours
and was estimated about 1,190 km ESE of Guam (12.3N 155.7E)
...moving North slowly with winds of 30 km/hr. This distur-
bance will be closely monitored for further development
into a Tropical Depression within a day or two.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch 
changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.5º N...LONGITUDE 125.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 335 KM (182 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2:  435 KM (235 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 725 KM (390 NM) SSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 620 KM (335 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-YAEYAMA ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT TIME THU SEPTEMBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: 
#02 - BATANES, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & 
      NORTHERN CAGAYAN
. 
#01 - REST OF CAGAYAN, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 21.0N 124.4E / 175-215 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 22.4N 123.7E / 185-230 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 26.3N 125.2E / 175-215 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.3N 125.5E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF JAPAN. TY SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN AROUND 24 HOURS. THE ANALYSIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS THAT THE
RIDGING IS NOT BREAKING DOWN AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORE-
CAST. THE SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF
THE RIDGING HAVE NOT BEEN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, BUT
DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND RECUR-
VATURE, THE TRACK IS WESTWARD OF THE CONSENSUS
...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning:
A fairly 
   common pet name for young girls. Name contributed 
   by:
Hong Kong, China

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 125.3E / WEST @ 11 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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