Tuesday, September 19, 2006

TS YAGI (16W) - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 18 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 19 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...MIGHT BECOME A TYPHOON TOMORROW
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to drift Southward for
the next 12 hours then shall become a Typhoon as it turns
SW'ly tomorrow. By Wednesday morning (Sep 20), YAGI shall
take a Westward track and accelerate in the direction of
Iwo Jima Island. The 3 to 5-day (Sep 21-23) Long Range
Forecast now shows the system moving WNW, turning more
NW'ly & passing very close to Iwo Jima Island Saturday
afternoon (Sep 23). All interests in Iwo Jima & Marianas
should closely monitor the progress of this developing
tropical cyclone


+ EFFECTS: At this moment, YAGI is not yet affecting any
Western Pacific islands
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.4º N...LONGITUDE 159.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 690 KM (373 NM) SE OF MARCUS ISLAND
DISTANCE 2:  1,540 KM (830 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,715 KM (925 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 4: 1,900 KM (1,025 NM) ESE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ESE @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN PACIFIC
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME MON SEPTEMBER 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 159.4E / 110-140 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 158.9E / 120-150 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 155.4E / 140-165 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.5N 159.2E.
^IN THE NEAR TERM, TS YAGI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AROUND 36
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS
...(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning:
Capricornus (goat). 
   
Name contributed by: Japan

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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