Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #05
Name: TYPHOON SAOMAI [08W/0608]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 07 AUGUST 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 08 AUGUST 2006
Sources: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
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Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 08 AUGUST 2006
Sources: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
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TYPHOON SAOMAI (08W) MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF OKINAWA-
TAIWAN AREA.
TAIWAN AREA.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SAOMAI is expected to enter the
PAR tomorrow morning as it intensifies. The 2 to 4-day
long-range forecast (Aug 9-11) shows SAOMI reaching
peak winds of 205 km/hr as it passes to the south of
Okinawa around 5 PM JST Wednesday, Aug 9. The core of
SAOMAI shall pass just to the north of Yaeyama Islands
Thursday morning and shall be about 220 km North of
Taipei, Taiwan around 4 PM local time Thursday (Aug
10). SAOMAI shall make landfall along the Zhejiang-
Fujian border in Southeastern China early morning
Friday (Aug 11) and dissipate over Anhui Province
Saturday (Aug 12).
+ EFFECTS: SAOMAI's circulation remains over the open
waters of the Western Pacific and is currently not
affecting any land mass at this time.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Southwest (SW)
Monsoon being enhanced by this typhoon is currently
bringing widespread rains, gusty winds and strong
thunderstorms across Western Micronesia (Palau,
Yap, Ulithi, etc). Moderate SW Monsoon across Pa-
lawan, Sulu Sea, Western Visayas and Western Min-
danao. Cloudy weather conditions with light to
moderate or sometimes heavy rainfall can be
expected. Southwesterly winds of 30 to 40
km/hr may be expected.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Storm MARIA (09W)
continues moving towards Shikoku & Honshu (Japan).
Current position: 30.7N 137.6E or approx 495 km
SE of Kochi, Japan,..Max sustained winds is at
110 km/hr...moving NW at 20 km/hr. Forecast to
make landfall tomorrow along Shikoku-Honshu Area.
Residents along those areas must take precautionary
measures.
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 07 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.2º N...LONGITUDE 137.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 260 KM (140 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,265 KM (685 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPANEAST OF P.A.R.
DISTANCE 3: 1,625 KM (877 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM PST MON AUGUST 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 20.4N 135.9E / 160-195 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 22.1N 133.4E / 185-230 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 24.8N 127.6E / 205-250 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST POSITION: 18.8N 138.1E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE TANDEM FLOW OF DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN AND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL TRACK TY 08W NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72 HRS. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RATHER
RAPIDLY, IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME INTERACTION WITH TS BOPHA
(10W) WILL OCCUR AFTER 36 HRS. IN FACT, THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE APPROXIMATELY 300 NM APART BY 48 HRS. SINCE
TY SAOMAI (08W) IS THE LARGER CIRCULATION, IT SHOULD REMAIN
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION
IN FORWARD SPEED OR A BRIEF OSCILLATION POLEWARD IS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH 36 HRS DUE TO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS...(more info)
>> SAOMAI {pronounced: sao~mai}, meaning: Name of planet
Venus. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 24.8N 127.6E / 205-250 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST POSITION: 18.8N 138.1E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE TANDEM FLOW OF DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN AND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL TRACK TY 08W NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72 HRS. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RATHER
RAPIDLY, IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME INTERACTION WITH TS BOPHA
(10W) WILL OCCUR AFTER 36 HRS. IN FACT, THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE APPROXIMATELY 300 NM APART BY 48 HRS. SINCE
TY SAOMAI (08W) IS THE LARGER CIRCULATION, IT SHOULD REMAIN
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION
IN FORWARD SPEED OR A BRIEF OSCILLATION POLEWARD IS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH 36 HRS DUE TO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS...(more info)
>> SAOMAI {pronounced: sao~mai}, meaning: Name of planet
Venus. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
____________
____________
RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wundergr
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY SAOMAI (08W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
____________
For the complete details on the TY SAOMAI (08W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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